Study Of Residential Price Fluctuation To Commercial Bank Credit Risk

Since the beginning of the 21st century,China's real estate market has shown a rapid development trend,its status in China's economic development is also increasingly important.Real estate industry is a typical capital-intensive industries,on the one hand,real estate development,sales and other sectors need a lot of financial support,most of which comes from bank credit funds;the other hand,commercial bank credit more through individual housing loans to meet Consumer demand for purchase.Therefore,the fluctuation of residential price is closely related to the national macroeconomic policy and commercial bank credit,and the fluctuation of residential price will have a great impact on the credit risk of commercial banks.In recent years,China's housing market in the form of change,most of the city housing prices continue to fluctuate with the policy-oriented.July 14,2017 held in Beijing,the fifth national financial work conference clearly put forward three tasks:"around the service of the real economy,prevention and control of financial risks,deepening financial reform." As the credit policy is an important part of the government's macro-control policy,therefore,at this stage to study the impact of residential price fluctuations on credit risk and macroeconomic factors such as commercial banks,and on this basis,the relevant research on different cities,development,prevention of commercial banks credit risk,the development of reasonable control policies have important practical significance and guiding significance.This paper consists of six parts:introduction,theoretical basis,current situation analysis,influence mechanism,empirical research and conclusion.The introduction includes the research background and research significance of residential price and commercial bank credit risk,the current research situation at home and abroad,the research methods and possible innovation and deficiency.The second part is the theoretical basis of the study,including the definition of credit risk of commercial housing and commercial bank,the theory of residential market and the theoretical basis of the impact of real estate price fluctuation on commercial bank credit risk.The third part is the analysis of the current situation of China's residential prices and commercial banks 'credit risk,the average selling price and growth rate of commodity dwellings,the national housing climate index,and 35 large and medium-sized cities' housing price and so on.Volatility,the use of real estate development loans and individual housing loan balance,the distribution of non-performing loans of commercial banks and other indicators to analyze China's commercial banks,real estate credit issuance and commercial bank credit risk.The fourth part is the mechanism of the impact of residential price fluctuation on the credit risk of commercial banks,including the relationship between residential price and bank credit and the risk transmission analysis.The current situation analysis shows that the fluctuation of commodity house price in China is influenced by the government's macro-control policy of real estate,and the residential market belongs to the policy-oriented market.At present,the housing market in our country has stabilized and how to maintain the balance of supply and demand in the housing market.The problem.At the same time,commercial bank credit is the main channel of residential market financing.The development of residential market is closely related to the banking industry.The sluggishness of residential market will increase the credit risk of commercial banks.In recent years,the balance of nonperforming loans has increased rapidly,The rate is also rising year by year,to prevent commercial banks credit risk is imperative.The fourth part is the empirical study of this paper,mainly from two angles:the national level and the urban level.First of all,using the time series data of nonperforming loan rate and residential price of commercial banks in China,taking into account the macroeconomic development,this paper studies the housing price fluctuation and commercial bank credit risk by constructing VAR model.In addition,on the basis of the above analysis,the paper analyzes the differences of urban development and regional differences from the panel data of 35 large and medium cities in China.The empirical study shows that there is a long-term positive relationship between the non-performing loan rate of commercial banks and the housing price and inflation in commercial banks,and it is inversely related to industrial added value,money supply and interest rate.In the short term,the price fluctuation of China's residential market has a reverse lagging effect on the credit nonperforming loan rate of commercial banks,that is,when the current residential price falls,the credit risk of the next commercial bank will be increased.From the 35 large and medium-sized cities in China,the price of commercial housing and the non-performing loan rate of commercial banks are mostly opposite,that is,the credit risk of commercial banks will increase when the residential market enters the downstream stage.From the first and second tier cities,the first stage of the city's economic development and financial development is relatively small dependent on the real estate market,and most second-tier cities banking and housing market-related,residential market prices will lead to business The sharp increase in bank credit risk.The article concludes with conclusions and suggestions.Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,this part puts forward four suggestions to prevent the credit risk of commercial banks from the perspective of commercial banks,to optimize the credit structure;to strengthen the loan issuance review,improve the level of risk management;the establishment of residential market risk early warning mechanism;to promote housing mortgage securitization.In addition,due to the housing market is a policy-oriented industries,affected by the national macro-control policies,so the government should play its own guiding and regulatory role to promote the healthy and stable development of the housing market,to avoid commercial banks credit risk may lead to financial risks.