The Research Of Trade Cooperation Between China And SAARC

The cooperation between China and Southern Asian Association for Regional Cooperation(short for SAARC)is developing quickly and continuously,but there potential of trade is underachieved.SAARC is an important part of‘one belt one road',it is also an important energy channels of our country.SAARC is also a great market for our country's advantage goods.So,cooperate with each other has an important strategic significance.For this reason,our paper aimed at finding the The truth of trade deficit between China and SAARC,so that we can find out the Key areas of trade cooperation.Further more we will put forward the suggestions of deepening trade cooperation.In the second section we analysis the advantages and disadvantages of the trade cooperation between China and SAARC.In this article we collect the wide data,then calculate them,we get the conclusion,with the development of 'one belt one road',integration of regional economic,the expended of bilateral investment,Complementary industrial structure,and the common border these advantages provide a solid foundation for China's trade cooperation with SAARC.However there also have many disadvantages,SAARC economy and social development level is lower than China.Terrorism is prevailing in Southern Asia and India is inactive to ‘one belt one road'.Trade deficit of SAARC continuous for a long time,also the free trade agreement didn't play the role of trade among the region as it should be.The level of linkages cross the borders isn't so good.The most serious is the lack of High-level talents.In these chapter we analysis the differences of economic and social between China and SAARC based on the terms of per capital GDP,the national education rate,CPI,the share of trade deficit on GDP and the infrastructure construction.We use share of primary products in the trade with China to analysis the import and export product structure.We calculate the share of trade in region in world trade of SAARC to analysis the economic integration of SAARC FTA,we come to the conclusion that FTA do not play the role of which they should be,there are many obstacles among the trade in this region.In the third section we will analysis the status and potential of trade between China and SAARC.Based on SITC standard and technology level,we will analysis the reason of deficit between China and SAARC.After the calculation,we can come to the conclusion that the differences of industrial structure between China and SAARC,which exports high share of low level technology and primary products,but imports more high technology and manufactured goods leads to the trade deficit of SAARC.In order to Analysis the level of Intra-industry trade we also calculate Intra-industry trade static and marginal index.We will also calculate comparative advantage index,competition index,complementary index,so we can know there comparative industries and trade complementary degree.In this section we still use valued-added trade methods to calculate the true trade income of trade participates based on the WIOD database.We use Bano revised trade potential estimation method based on 2007-2016 Panel data to calculate trade potential contrast the actual data we can conclude that the country which signed free trade agreement with China,trust each other on political may give full play to potential of bilateral trade.In the fourth section we will use Modified gravity model and measurement software to estimate the parameter of all factors which affect the bilateral trade.In these factors,whether there is linkage between two countries influence is about 0.0964 percent,whether they signed the free trade agreement(short for FTA)influence is about-0.2456 percent,whether they have the common border influence is about 0.212 percent,the population of china influence is about 0.7928 percent,the free trade agreement effect is about-0.0063 percent,industrial structure complementary influence is about 0.7813 percent,GDP is about 0.1223 and 0.1244 percent and dist between to countries influence is about-0.0817 percent.In addition,we test the correlation coefficients of the independent variables,we find that depart from the GDP and population,the other variables do not have high correlation.In fifth section,I put forward the proposal about Deepen cooperation between China and SAARC,these countries should raise the level of political mutual trust,strengthen contact level,improved infrastructure,energetically develop intra-industry trade to enhance trade competitiveness,accelerate the integrationprocess.Opening wider to the outside areas,carry out international anti-terrorism,conduct cooperation in the field of energy,agriculture,optimize industrial structure,promote the competitiveness of the trade,increase the talent pool and other measures,to deepen the SAARC trade cooperation with China.