Study On The Trade Potential Of China And Pakistan Under The Construction Of "China-Pakistan Economic Corridor"

The flagship project of One Belt And One Road is the china-pakistan economic corridor,which is at the intersection of the "maritime silk road" and the "silk road economic belt".The china-pakistan economic corridor is designed to enhance bilateral connectivity and strengthen bilateral trade cooperation.It is a significant project for both countries.It is an important part and a pilot test point of the One Belt And One Road.The in-depth development of both sides has a great role to play and guide the countries along the One Belt And One Road.The building of the china-pakistan economic corridor is a common demand in the development process of the two countries,indicating that the bilateral relationship has undergone a major transformation from a single political mutual trust to a comprehensive economic win-win situation.The china-pakistan economic corridor can deepen trade cooperation between the two countries,open new energy channels for the two countries and,more importantly,bring new opportunities for economic development and deepening cooperation across the Asian region.Pakistan is a rapidly developing country in South Asia,the 25 th largest economy in the world,and a gateway to central Asia in the Indian Ocean.Pakistan is a key node in our One Belt And One Road initiative.At the same time,as China's all-weather strategic partner,it plays an invaluable role in promoting the construction of "One Belt And One Road" and "china-pakistan economic corridor".Therefore,it is of great significance to study the potential of china-pakistan trade in this context.Through the analysis of the current situation of china-pakistan trade and the complementarity and competitiveness of the bilateral trade,and through the construction of the trade gravity model,we can analyze the trade potential of China and Pakistan and the factors that affect china-pakistan trade,promote the growth of china-pakistan trade,accelerate the construction of "china-pakistan economic corridor",and promote the development of other countries along the "One Belt And One Road".This article mainly analyzes the trade potential of China and Pakistan under the construction of "china-pakistan economic corridor",which is based on the theory of absolute advantage of classical trade theory and comparative advantage theory,theory of factor endowment of neoclassical trade theory,intra-industry trade theory of contemporary international trade theory and theory of national competitive advantage and trade gravity model.First,we will analyze the current situation of china-pakistan trade under the china-pakistan economic corridor.We will analyze the size of china-pakistan trade and the structure of china-pakistan trade.Second,according to the classification of HS(96),it uses TC(trade competitiveness index)and IIT(intra-industry trade index)to analyze the complementarity and competitiveness of the 18 commodity trade in China and Pakistan respectively.The third is to use the model of trade gravity to analyze China's potential for Pakistan's exports and its potential to import Pakistan.The fourth is to propose a further play of the china-pakistan economic corridor,and strengthen the countermeasures for the china-pakistan trade cooperation.The results of this study show that the trade volume between China and Pakistan has increased rapidly since 2000,but it is mainly driven by China's exports to Pakistan.The trade volume is relatively small compared with other countries,and the bilateral trade deficit is constantly expanding,and the bilateral trade status is unbalanced.In 2016,China ranked second in the top 10 countries in Pakistan exports,second only to the United States,while in the top 10 countries of China exporter,there was no Pakistan.China is a major exporter of Pakistan and Pakistan is not a major exporter of China.China's exports to Pakistan are mainly based on manufactured goods,and Pakistan's exports to China are mainly based on raw materials and low-value products.Second,the complementarity between Chinese and Pakistani goods is greater than that of competition.China's exports are more competitive than Pakistan's,and its competitive advantage is stronger than that of Pakistan,which is close to specialized export.While Pakistan only has a competitive advantage over China in its activities and animal products,presenting specialized in export,and the two sides show the trend of intra-industrytrade on other commodities.Thirdly,through the analysis of the trade gravity model,it can be seen that the main factors that affect China's export to Pakistan are the GDP of Pakistan,the population of China,the distance between the two countries and whether they are members of One Belt And One Road.The main factors that affect China's import to Pakistan are China's gross domestic product,Pakistan's gross domestic product,Pakistan's domestic population,the distance between the two countries and whether it is a member of One Belt And One Road.China's potential to import Pakistan is much greater than its potential,and the potential value of China's exports to Pakistan has risen from about 0.75 to about 0.95 in 2000,but it has never been more than 1.2,and it has been transformed from huge trade potential to potential development.The potential value of China's imports to Pakistan is less than 0.8 and is of huge potential,but the trade potential value of the year 2000 to 2013 has been generally rising.It can be seen that there is still a lot of room for improvement in trade between China and Pakistan.Both sides should actively explore new trade cooperation factors to promote bilateral trade growth.Fourthly,in view of the above analysis,the author believes that the following measures should be taken to promote china-pakistan trade,for example,by establishing the china-pakistan transportation network and reducing transportation costs;Expanding investment in Pakistan to promote economic growth in Pakistan;Different countermeasures are adopted for china-pakistan trade complementarity or competitive goods;Attaching importance to xinjiang's position in china-pakistan trade;To strengthen cooperation between the two governments in security.