Macroeconomic Variables Affect The Difference In Housing Price Fluctuations

The real estate industry is the pillar industry of the national economy.However,the rising housing prices have also caused more and more negative impacts on our economy and social development.In analyzing the reasons for rising house prices,it is generally believed that the excessive supply of money,the appreciation of the renminbi,lower interest rates and other financial variables are the basic driving forces for rising house prices.However,with the slowdown of China's GDP growth and the national economic development entering a new normal,the changes in the macro-financial variables have also taken on a new trend.The growth of the money supply has been slowed down.The renminbi exchange rate has risen and then dropped,and the interest rate has been marketed.It is noteworthy that this trend of financial variables change,didn't change the trend of price growth,the state had to introduce a series of measures to curb housing prices.The dissertation analyzes the impact of macroeconomic variables on house prices and their differences from two aspects of the whole country and the cities in different cities in an attempt to reveal the relationship between the macroeconomic variables and house prices under the new normal,using various analysis methods such as theory,empirical analysis and comparisonThe dissertation starts with the theory,analyzes the transmission mechanism of money supply,interest rate and exchange rate from the supply and demand level,which provides the theoretical basis for the later research.Secondly,using the statistical data to describe the volatility of financial variables and housing prices,we find that the relationship between house price changes and money supply,interest rates and exchange rates in the new normal are different.Thirdly,the VAR model is chosen to analyze the difference of the fluctuation of house price caused by three typical macro financial variables,such as money supply,interest rate and exchangerate,using unit root test,co-integration test and impulse response.The results show that before the new normal,the money supply,interest rate,exchange rate and house price showed a stable relationship with the theory in most of the time.When the new normal was reached,the impact of the three macro-financial variables on the national housing prices all weakened,Moreover,the impact on housing prices in the first,second and third tier cities has obvious differences.The response time of the third tier cities is slower than that of the first and second tier cities,and the affected cities in the first,second and third tier cities are successively enhanced.The reason for these changes is that macroeconomic variables have an impact on housing prices since the new normal due to the huge demand for housing caused by the huge monetary aggregates,unreliable market-based interest rate transmission mechanism,excessive exchange rate volatility after exchange rate reform and the expectation of depreciation Weakened,coupled with the inertia of house prices,the government monopolies the land,the central and local real estate positioning and other reasons lead to rising house prices in recent years,the phenomenon of rising;Second,due to the first-tier and some second-tier cities highlight the real estate investment function,Currency is more easily inflows;innovative financial instruments are more widely used;there is a clear gap between the strength and weakness due to abundant resources,well-equipped facilities,large population inflows,and excessive buyer expectations for housing prices.Finally,based on the results of the previous study,some suggestions are put forward.First,control of the total amount of money is still the top priority.Second,attention should be paid to the impact of long-term exchange rate changes and drastic reverse changes on housing prices.Third,the combination of various policies should promote the sound development of the real estate market.