The Impact Of RMB Exchange Rate Change On Long Term Export Enterprise

With. the RMB exchange rate developing more market-oriented and more two-way fluctuations volatility, the RMB exchange rate fluctuations are impacting China's export enterprises. The export enterprises are losing their orders because enterprises refused long term orders and large orders due to enterprises cannot forecast the exchange rate trend, which are impacting directly to the enterprise orders declined and indirectly affecting China's overall export volume decreased. Among export enterprises, the long term export enterprises as a specific type are more been affecting by the RMB exchange rate because of its export cycle span, long settlement period and more types of currency exchange. Therefore, this article focus on long term export enterprises as an independent research object and study the relationship of the exchange rate fluctuations and behavior of such enterprises.This article research from theory and empirical based on summary of research results of the RMB exchange rate and long term export enterprises and analysis results of development trend of the RMB exchange to US dollar and Euros. Firstly, based on the aspects of international trade theory, this article systematically analyzes the impact on long term export enterprises by unilateral fluctuations, short term fluctuations and multi-currency fluctuation of RMB exchange rate.Secondly, based on the empirical method of cointegration regression and error correction model(ECM), this article quantitatively analyzes the impact on long term export enterprises by the RMB exchange rate historical data. Finally, the conclusion is that the RMB exchange rate will directly affect the long-term export enterprises on corporate profits and export size, which corporate profits and export size will grow when the RMB exchange rate unilateral appreciation. This conclusion is not consistent with the results of traditional theories 'J-Curve Effect'.Through the research of the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on long term export enterprises, it is considered that long term export enterprises should take more flexible business strategy and take reasonable measures to avoid exchange rate risk. In addition, this article also gives some comments and suggestions on monetary policy and industrial policy.