| Zinc is one of the most common metals and is widely used in various fields as the fourth largest metal and the second largest nonferrous metal.China is a big zinc resource country and has the second largest zinc reserves in the world.From the perspective of resources,China has high zinc reserves and a wide distribution area,but it is relatively concentrated.China's zinc ore deposits are rich in lean minerals,and there are fewer rich deposits and abundant associated elements.At the same time,China is also the country with the largest zinc production and consumption.In recent years,zinc prices have fluctuate greatly,which has caused an impact on the stable operation of related companies in the zinc industry chain in China.Studying the zinc industry chain,the supply and demand situation of zinc,the zinc price trend and the hedging of zinc are of great significance for promoting the stable development of China's zinc industry.Through analysis of supply and demand,it has been found that global zinc demand has increased steadily,and supply has fluctuate in recent years.The main reason for the steady increase in demand is the rapid growth of China's economy.Subsequent economic development in other developing countries will provide support for the steady growth of zinc demand in the future.The reason for the fluctuation in zinc supply can be explained by the concept of supply cycle.In this paper,the zinc supply cycle is divided into four stages: passive increase production,active decrease production,passive decrease production and active increase production,and the characteristics of each stage are described.It is pointed out that at present,it is in the stage of active increase production,and it is expected that the zinc price will peak in 2019 in this cycle,and it will enter the passive increase production stage around 2020,and the zinc price will face a greater downside risk.This paper uses ARCH model to analyze the volatility of zinc futures yield to reflect the volatility of zinc price.It is concluded that the volatility of the zinc price has a fluctuating aggregation effect and a leverage effect.Since the rapid rise in zinc prices since 2016,the volatility of zinc prices may continue to maintain a relatively high level based on the agglomeration effect and leverage effect.During the analysis of the zinc industry chain,this article defines the miners and smelters as upstream companies in the zinc industry chain.From a global perspective,the annual output of the top three global zinc concentrate producers accounts for 20.6% of the world's annual production.Global zinc market discourse power is mainly in the hands of a few companies.Compared with the global level,China's zinc concentrate and refined zinc production capacity is more dispersed.The total output of the top ten listed companies of zinc concentrate products only accounts for 22.9% of the national annual production,indicating that China's zinc concentrate production capacity is dispersed,most of zinc The miners and smelters are small and medium-sized enterprises.The ability to resist risks is poor and the need for hedging is significant.Finally,this paper uses supply cycle theory to provide three judgment basis for the identification of hedging nodes.The hedging node in the upper reaches of the zinc industry chain in China should be selected during the passive stimulation period in the zinc supply cycle.It is characterized by a large-scale global zinc production or production increase,and zinc refining inventory is low in recent years,and zinc price is high. |
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