The Interestanchor For The Price-based Monetary Policy

The concept of natural interest rate originated from the cumulative process first proposed by Wicksell(1898);Keynes(1936)made a macro-economic study of its sublation;Taylor(1993)applies it to the law of price-type money: Taylor rule.In recent years,Woodford(2003)proposed a new Weixeil frame,such as the representative,pay attention to the real economic operation under the price stickiness natural interest rates.The author follows the order of thought germination,theoretical value,practical meaning and practice,the former is the cornerstone of the latter,the latter is the extension of the former to comb the theory concept of natural interest rate,and draws more attention to practical related conclusions.For reference,the Taylor rule and the interest rate corridor model have been widely used in the western currency world since the 1990 s.Scholars have sung a good price-oriented monetary policy,pointing out that monetary policy needs to change from quantity to price in the period of interest rate regulation.Monetary policymakers and economists have begun to pay attention to natural interest rates.The natural interest rate is the interest rate of the equilibrium state of the real economy,when the equilibrium interest rate of the money market is equal,the whole economy(including the real economy and the monetary economy)achieves the general equilibrium and realizes the ultimate goal of the monetary policy.The author uses the idea of natural interest rate as the theoretical basis of interest rate regulation in the framework of price-oriented monetary policy,the characteristic of interest rate anchor of natural interest rate,and puts forward the interest rate anchor in the future price-oriented monetary policy frame of our country.Natural interest rates are similar to potential outputs and have properties that cannot be directly observed.The author constructs the general equilibrium model of the monetary policy by constructing the Keynesian(including is curve,Phillips curve)and the traditional Taylor rule to express the dynamic relation between the interest rate gap,output gap and inflation gap.Using the measurement method unit root and Johansen cointegration test to avoid pseudo regression,state space model and Kalman Wave Estimation(China)natural interest rate.The empirical results are in agreement with China’s actual economic trajectory,giving a strong proof of the monetary practice of incorporating natural interest rates into the context of a price-oriented monetary policy framework.