RMB Exchange Rate,International Commodity Prices And China's Prices

With the acceleration of the process of economic globalization,the RMB exchange rate as the exchange rate of China's currency and other countries,its role is to achieve China's internal and external economic balance,on the other hand is directly and effectively adjust the international economic competition.The floating elasticity of the RMB exchange rate has gradually increased,the rate of exchange rate changes has been strengthened,the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate in the role of international trade activities highlights the changes in international trade is bound to impact on China's price level.In addition,the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate will affect China's import demand for commodities,which will lead to fluctuations in its prices.With the continuous improvement of China's economic scale and the deepening of the opening to the outside world,the demand for resources is rising and domestic supply is difficult.Imports of commodities increased significantly,resulting in commodity prices and the price level of our country increasingly close ties.The article aims to analyze the direct impact of RMB exchange rate on China's price level and the indirect effect of commodity prices on China's price level.Comprehensive use of literature combing method,theoretical analysis and empirical research method,build SVAR model,and then analyze the direction of action and impact.First of all,based on the analysis of the background and significance of the research,the article combs the relevant literatures at home and abroad,including the impact of exchange rate on prices,the impact of exchange rate on commodity prices,the impact of commodity prices and other factors on prices Three aspects to be reviewed.Secondly,from the complete transfer of exchange rate and the incomplete transfer theory of exchange rate,the paper expatiates on the economic theory of the study and the transmission path from three aspects:the exchange rate of exchange rate,the exchange rate of commodity prices and the commodity price Price of the transmission to be analyzed.It provides a solid theoretical basis for the selection of reasonable variables and the construction and empirical analysis of the measurement model.Again,based on the literature review,theoretical basis and transmission mechanism,the paper chooses CPI and PPI as explanatory variables,RMB real effective exchange rate,CRB spot index,broad money Supply,gross domestic product,foreign direct investment and foreign exchange reserves are interpreted variables.Since China was adjusted to a managed floating exchange rate system in July 2005,it differentiates between January1996 and June 2005(before exchange rate reform)and July 2005 to December 2016(after the reform)monthly data,the establishment of SVAR model exchange rate reform before and after the comparative empirical analysis.The results show that: before the exchange rate reform,the RMB exchange rate on the transfer of the CPI there is lag,and the appreciation of the renminbi,PPI short-term rise long-term decline;appreciation of the renminbi,commodity prices,PPI rise,but there is lag.After the exchange rate reform,the appreciation of the renminbi,CPI and PPI are rising,and the exchange rate after the RMB exchange rate on China's price shocks deepened;RMB appreciation,commodity prices,CPI and PPI are rising;before and after the exchange rate,commodity prices PPI The impact of the intensity are higher than the CPI;exchange reform after the RMB exchange rate,commodity prices on the contribution of China's prices were significantly improved.Finally,based on the results,the growth rate of money supply should be matched with the GDP growth rate;the market structure of the import and export goods should be improved by the market-oriented exchange rate mechanism;the strategic reserve of commodities should be improved and the investment channels of foreign exchange reserves will be diversified;The internationalization of RMB and commodity price fluctuations in the monitoring and early warning mechanism four policy recommendations.