The Study On The Conductive Effect Of Exchange Rate Under The International Oil Price Fluctuation

Crude oil as a kind of important foundation energy,since the second world war,the international crude oil prices often fluctuate,and each time the volatility of oil prices has brought the macroeconomic cyclical adjustment.As the world's exchange rate policy gradually become market-oriented,oil price shocks on the impact of exchange rate is paid more and more attention.Because China and Russia are neighbors,no matter from the two sides have signed a strategic partnership agreement height,or from the complementary to the point of view of the two countries economic,continuing to strengthen energy cooperation is very important and meaningful for the two countries.The purpose of this paper is to explore the relation between oil price fluctuation and exchange rate policy.By studying the interaction mechanism of exchange rate,on the basis of general contrastive analysis,to give policy advice for energy cooperation.Oil prices affect exchange rate exist two main transmission mechanism:trade account transmission mechanism and price transmission mechanism.Trade account transmission mechanism is mainly based on international payments for mediation.Firstly,the international oil price shocks affect the balance of payments,and then the balance of payments effect on exchange rate transmission.Price transmission mechanism is mainly the price for mediation.Firstly,the international oil price shocks affect the price,and then the conduction effect of exchange rate on the prices.In this paper,by the selection of macroeconomic data after China's exchange rate reform in 2005,the sample is divided into two subsample(rising oil prices and a drop in oil prices).Via comparative analysis,the whole samples get a rise in oil prices and falling difference influence on the exchange rate between China and Russia.SVAR model is established,and through the impulse response and variance decomposition,the results of the empirical analysis is achieved.Through the empirical analysis,the conclusions have the following points:1.The oil price fluctuation and the RMB exchange rate exist positive correlation,and negative correlation exist with the Russian ruble exchange rate;2.Both China and Russia,industrial added value and exchange rates have a negative impact,while M2 and the CPI and exchange rate exist positive impact;3.When the rise in oil prices,oil price fluctuations on the impact of China's RMB exchange rate dynamics become bigger,and last longer,while the impact on the Russian ruble effect is weakened;4.When the fall in oil prices,the impact of oil price fluctuations on the Russian ruble exchange rate becomes more obvious.On the contrary,the impact on China's RMB exchange rate is weakened.Obviously,oil price fluctuations to the exchange rate between China and Russia is reverse.The impact of rising oil prices and the fall is different.Investigating the reason,the main cause is opposite trade status between China and Russia.Otherwise,different degree of dependence on oil and the oil price and exchange rate marketization development may explain.Based on the empirical results,four relevant policy suggestions are given as follows:1.To further deepen the energy cooperation between China and Russia,and to sign long-term stable energy sales contract;2.to establish connectivity between the two countries' oil futures market,to perfect the market pricing and hedging mechanism;3.China should expand oil import channels,and Russian oil export diversification should be implemented;4.The Chinese government should promote the oil price and exchange rate marketization process,and enlarge the interval of price fluctuations.