Financial Risk Early Warning Research Of Material Industry Based On Cash Flow

Along with our country market economy system reform deepening and the rapid development of capital market,the stakeholders of enterprise financial risk early warning research demand increasingly urgent,urgent need through targeted early warning method,establish an effective financial risk warning model.Enterprises to establish the financial risk early warning model based on cash flow for managers,can effectively help them find early enterprise risk in the financial management,adopt corresponding measures to deal with in time,minimize enterprise losses due to financial risk;For investors and other stakeholders,the establishment of financial risk early warning model can make them clear understanding to the enterprise's operating conditions,so as to avoid investment risk rules,to reduce the possibility of loss.The uncertainty of external market and internal behavior of enterprises increases,and the degree of uncertainty of earnings is also increasing.This will greatly weaken the competitiveness of enterprises and the capital operation capacity of the company.In order to change this phenomenon,we need to start from the risk control design of the enterprise and make accurate prediction before the risk,so as to ensure the sustainable development of the enterprise in the future.Cash flow calculations are based on cash basis rather than the accrual basis,can reflect the enterprise the cash income and expenditure,to avoid the accrual in the balance sheet and income statement under the method through different accounting records of the identified assets and liabilities index result of window dressing.Because of the balance sheet and income statement confirmed that there exists a variety of methods and measurement,led to the understanding of the same items will be due to different accounting information to make different judgments,but the cash flow statement,is the enterprise that has accumulated in various periods of cash inflows and outflows to the statistics,which can provide reliable basis for the enterprise's financial risk early warning.In this paper,through the combing and analysis of the literature of the domestic and foreign financial early warning,to material industry as an example,A company through the analysis ofthe characteristics of the industry and the financial risk of the enterprise itself,from debt,cash flow,asset management,growth characteristics,material industry,income,costs and assets rights remuneration in seven aspects,on the basis of cash flow,select the corresponding financial early warning indicators,determine the selected financial indicators weight,and to A company's management and relevant financial personnel questionnaires to determine the membership degree,by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,build A company's financial risk early warning model based on cash flow,Use of A company's financial data to evaluate financial risk of the current state of the enterprise,the study found that solvency,asset management,growth characteristics,material industry,income,costs and assets rights remuneration six aspects in moderate warning,cash flow risk for severe warning state,on the basis of the analysis process and results,further put forward the targeted countermeasures and Suggestions.