Analysis On The Minimum Purchase Price Policy Of Grain In China

As an important means of the government to make up for market failure and regulate the economy,The grain purchase policy is closely related to the operation of the national economy and has an important impact on the economic development and social stability.This paper evaluates the rationality of the minimum purchase price by constructing mathematical model and predicts the minimum purchase price of wheat and rice in China in 2017 and uses the SAS and MATLAB software to predict the minimum purchase price of wheat and rice to compare with the actual minimum purchase price approved by the State Council in 2017,And then better predict the 2018 China's minimum purchase price of wheat and rice.Taking wheat and rice as an example.firstly,According to the time series analysis method to explore the special regularity of grain price in China from domestic and foreign environment.Secondly,The sample data was sorted by the clustering analysis to screen the representative provinces and establish the index system of the influencing factors,Building the multiple regression model by stepwise regression model to detect the influence of each factor on the grain prices of different provinces.Finally,The ARIMA model was established under the perspective of economics to evaluate the effectiveness of policy implementation.Building the minimum purchase price of the game model,So as to make the evaluation of the rationality.To predict the 2018 minimum purchase price,This paper mainly through the construction of the linear regression radial basis function(RBF)neural network model and the simple linear regression model to predict the 2018 minimum purchase price of wheat and rice and get the better model is RBF neural network mode.The final optimal result is: wheat-1.18 yuan per catty,early indica rice-1.3 yuan per catty,middle and late indica rice-1.36 yuan per catty,japonica rice-1.5 yuan per catty.Finally,According to the results of this research,Providing the optimization an decision-making for the regulation of grain cultivation in China.