Statistical Test And Measurement About China's Internet Bubble In "Internet+"

Recent years,with the "Big Data","Smart City","Mobile Internet","Cloud Computing"and other new concepts,China's Internet industry has been developed by leaps and bounds."Internet ?" penetrates into various fields of economy.At the same time,the economy of China is in "the new normal",all aspects need transformation and upgrading.Internet has become important engine to promote social development.In the situation of "the new normal",chairman Xi stressed that Internet could do much."Internet +" Action and Big Data Strategy has been incorporated into the top of the national economy design.China's electronic information industry has maintained rapid growth in recent years:the electronic information industry growth rate is 10.4%in 2016,much higher than the year's GDP growth rate.In stock market,Internet companies are in hot pursuit to investors.Technology Stock index and Big Data Stock index rose quickly.Growth Enterprise Index is only 776 points at the beginning of 2013,and it has reached 2859 points in June 2015;From 2009 to 2015,Shenzhen Science and Technology Index rise from 2416 points to 7058 points.Shenyin&Wanguo Securitis released the computer industry index,and it is 9219 points in June 2015,whose index is 1506 points in 2013.With the booming of Internet industry,the second "dot-com bubble" alert continuously appears.In 1998,the dot-com bubble left a deep impression to us,the bubble caused bankruptcies,workers unemployment.At the same time,consumption and investment has shrunk dramatically,the national economic growth fell sharply.Therefore,the timely detection of the emergence of the bubble is imperative in China's rapid development of the Internet period.Although there are studies about Internet bubbles,in fact there is little study on the measure of the size and time detection of bubble.Now we intend to use direct and indirect method to test bubble of Internet industry since 2000.We choose markov switching model and GSADF to test the bubble and calculate the extent of the bubble.A comparison in two markets between China and America is also necessary.The empirical results show that China's Internet industry bubble appeared twice from 2000,and one in 2007 which lasted for six months under the financial crisis and it's scale is 8.18;the other one arose in the first half of 2015,it lasted for 4 months and it's scale is 14.44 which is larger than the bubble in 2007.The scale of this bubble is smaller than "dot-com bubble",and it is in a solid situation of "the new normal".Therefore bubble burst did not cause serious impact on the economy.Now we are stepping into "the new normal",the developing of Internet Industry is fast in order.The Internet is bound to inject more new vitality in China's economy with participants' positive response.