Study On Excess Expenditure Of Individual Account Of Basic Old Age Insurance For Urban Workers

In the background of the population has become a global trend,the problem of pension payment gradually attracted wide attention of scholars at home and abroad.Because of the change of population structure,the impact of the reform of enterprises and institutions as well as the economic and social development,the traditional cash balance cash under the mode of financial problems to the sustainable development of endowment insurance system is facing severe challenges,the personal account pension system came into being.In the decision of the State Council issued two times in 1997 and in 2005 on the basic pension system for enterprise employees,the Chinese Tongzhang combination mode of the basic pension insurance system was been determined down.Because the system transition has brought huge hidden costs,and the basic old-age insurance personal accounts Chinese scale is running empty account,people pay less attention to personal accounts for basic old-age insurance for urban workers operating conditions in the future.The system of personal accounts of endowment insurance Since the implementation of the pension insurance system,the system is not perfect in the future benefit period whether to face the hidden danger of excess funds,it is the focus of this study.Study from "heritage difference" and "longevity" two aspects of qualitative analysis of the causes of personal pension accounts Chinese basic old-age insurance for urban workers excess spending,and combined with the life cycle theory,complete life table,insurance actuarial theory and Chinese economic and social development trend,in the "standard" hypothesis basic old-age insurance personal account payment model is constructed under the new system.According to the provisions set parameters related to the basic old-age insurance system for urban workers and China current economic development trend,the town of insured workers from 1997 to 2015 pension personal accounts in future excess expenditure were simulated and empirical research,and the related influencing factors of sensitivity analysis based on the definition of excess expenditure.Through the simulation,the empirical results show that since 1997 the new insurance system is implemented by the end of 2015 Personal accounts,the basic old-age insurance for urban workers will accumulate a huge excess spending in the long term,the "longevity"(73 years old-105 years old because of longevity spending)accounted for 95% of the proportion of excess spending,"heritage"(61 to 72 years old by inheritance expenditure)accounted for about 5% of the US there is reason to refute the theory about the deaths of a ledger confiscated.Through the sensitivity analysis of related parameters,the short term can not delay the retirement age show tonic effect to "longevity",if the implementation of delay retirement policy,it is necessary to delay the retirement age to 65 years of age.Similar measures to improve the payment rate or charge interest rate etc.will increase to promote personal accounts for basic old-age insurance for urban workers the accumulated amount of personal accounts,to alleviate the basic old-age insurance for urban workers is not effective in the long-term ability to pay role.Therefore,this paper based on the research results put forward by increasing the calculation time reduced per unit time pension expenditures,and actively explore the pension value-added channels,improve the income of the pension fund proposal,intended to ease the personal account the basic old-age insurance for urban workers due to their own deficiencies of the system in the future may bear the payment pressure.