Research On The Balance Of Basic Pension Insurance Fund For Urban Employees

The balance of the fund is both the ideal state of revenue and expenditure of the pension insurance fund,and the key to keep the stable operation of pension insurance system.The paper takes Wuhan City as an example and uses the theory on the balance of basic pension insurance fund,documentary research method and quantitative analysis method to analyze the balance of basic pension insurance fund for urban employees.It also gives some advice on promoting the balance of the fund.Firstly,the paper introduces the development history and present situation of the basic pension insurance system for urban employees of Wuhan City.Wuhan City improves the system constantly basing on the national policy and its realities.From 2005 to 2014,the total number of participants in the system increases constantly.But the increasing rate of retired employees is higher than salaried employees.The coverage rate is low.Although Wuhan City enhances the level of basic pension constantly for 10 years,it's still low.And the operation of the system is poor.Secondly,the paper analyzes the situation of revenue and expenditure of the fund.From 2005 to 2014,except for 2011,the expenditure of basic pension insurance fund for urban employees always exceeds the revenue.Basic pension insurance system for urban employees has to rely on the financial subsidy.And the gap between revenue and expenditure increases year by year.The contradiction between revenue and expenditure of basic pension insurance fund is very severe,which threatens the sustainable development of basic pension insurance system.According to the relevant regulations,the paper makes assumptions and chooses the average wage of workers in the town,the collection rate of basic pension insurance fee,the rate of basic pension insurance fee,the total number of salaried employees in the basic pension insurance system,the average substituting rate of the pension,the total number of retired employees in the basic pension insurance system,and the rate of return on investment to establish the forecasting models of revenue and expenditure of the basic pension insurance fund.According to the relevant data in recent years and the economic and social development trend of Wuhan City,the paper assigns the parameters and deduces the situation of revenue and expenditure of the basic pension insurance fund of Wuhan City in 2015—2025.It indicates that revenue and expenditure are both on the rise in the target period.In the former target period,the increasing rate of expenditure is faster than revenue and the revenue is less than expenditure,which can't keep the balance between the revenue and expenditure.In the middle of the target period,the increasing rate of revenue catches up with the expenditure;the revenue and expenditure tend to be balanced.In the latter target period,there is some surplus of the fund and it increases year by year.According to the analyses of the assigned parameters of the forecasting models and calculation results,the paper finds that with the increase of the collection rate of basic pension insurance fee,the rate of return on investment and the higher increase rate of the total number of salaried employees in the basic pension insurance system,the revenue and expenditure of the basic pension insurance fund tend to be balanced.Finally,the paper gives advice on promoting the balance of revenue and expenditure of basic pension insurance fund.First,by adjusting the parameters of the forecasting models.Like improving the collection rate,the number of salaried employees in the system,the rate of return on investment and reducing the growth rate of the retired employees.They are all helpful for promoting the balance between revenue and expenditure.Last,by refining the basic pension insurance system.Such as,establishing and improving the basic pension insurance laws and regulations system,improving the overall level of basic pension insurance and resolving transformation cost gradually.