Research On The Dynamic Effects Of The Development Of Shadow Banking On The Money Multiplier In China

Shadow banking in Europe and the United States is defined as from the loan to loan securitization,and then to based on the primary securitization products,continue to implement the package,and then securitization,buy back,so as to constitute a new type of credit creation chain.Since 2008 the global financial crisis,the "shadow banking" has become the focus problem of Academic and practical circles,in view of its maturity mismatch and liquidity conversion and other issues,which has been identified as one of the key factors to trigger and expand the sub loan crisis.And currently,the size of China's shadow banking system is also very large,the hidden financial risks have become increasingly prominent.Although Chinese scholars have been gradually concerned about and carried out in-depth study,most of them focus on the definition of the concept,risk characteristics,credit creation,etc.The study on shadow banking and money supply,monetary policy is still very scarce,especially the lack of in-depth analysis of the mechanism of the intermediate.Based on the micro perspective of money multiplier model,this paper empirically analyzes the dynamic effects of the shadow banking system on the money multiplier.Based on the theory of money creation,monetary multiplier refers to the monetary base through the credit channel after amplification,in the traditional sense,the only commercial bank with the function of money creation.But in view of the shadow banking credit creation effect,and has low or no reserve mechanism.The liquidity creation mechanism defined by the traditional money quantity theory has produced a great change.However in the official statistics,the money multiplier is the broad money supply and the ratio of the monetary base.But M2 value has not yet been included in the size of the shadow banking statistics.In this context,the people's Bank of China monetary policy based on the monetary multiplier effect of the implementation of the monetary policy may be deviated.The regulation effect of bank credit may also gradually become weak.Therefore,in-depth study of the shadow banking system credit creation mechanism,and the dynamic relationship between empirical research and social mobility,monetary multiplier index,not only has the practical significance to improve the regulation of the shadow banking system,but also help to optimize the interest rate market in the context of monetary policy formulation strategy.Based on the decision mechanism of monetary multiplier,the shadow banks joined the traditional money multiplier model,to further explore the impact of the shadow banking under the condition of each monitoring mechanism of currency differences.Then this paper analyzes how to use the bank deposit shunt,the social credit supply expansion and other channels,to supplement the money supply and the substitutioneffect,and finally based on the VEC model,SSM model to empirical test.The results showed that: The emergence and expansion of the shadow banking has a significant impact on the changes of the money multiplier,and the long-term relationship is negative.At the same time,the impact of shadow banking on the monetary multiplier has a procyclical characteristics,which is contradictory with the reverse cycle operation of monetary policy.So as to find a reasonable explanation for the distortion of monetary policy control effect.