Research On The Interaction Between Credit Constraints, Shadow Banking And Real Estate Prices Under The Background Of Macro-control

It has been concerned by people about continuously rising prices of China’s real estate market in recent years. It is not only directly related to people’s lives but also have a significant impact on economic stability and social harmony. As the intensive capital requirements of real estate industry, while bank credit is an important source of its funding, it has become one of the major policy orientation that government stabilize real estate prices by credit constraints to stabilize the real estate investment and consumption behavior. At the same time, It has begun to attract the attention of academic about the rapid development of China’s shadow banking since. As the shadow banking real estate industry is becoming another important financing channel of real estate industry due to government regulatory policies on the commercial bank’s credit system, its links with real estate prices and the impact of policy effects cannot be ignored.It will become more subtle about the interaction between credit constraints and real estate prices under the macro-control background by introducing the shadow banking system. It is combined with the use of qualitative and quantitative analysis methods. Firstly, some foreign and domestic research literature on this issue is reviewed and summarized. Then, it is introduced that the current development of China’s real estate market and real estate credit support system. On this basis, this paper theoretically analyzes the issue by classical economics analysis framework and establishing an equilibrium model of real estate market and credit market including shadow banking. Finally, based on China’s monthly data from 2005 to 2012, an empirical study has been done by econometric methods including Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test and time-varying parameters regression of the state-space model, etc.Through theoretical and empirical analysis, procyclical characteristics are revealed between real estate prices and China’s credit system including commercial banks and shadow banking, and they present a complementary-and-alternate relationship. While, there are some differences between the impacts on real estate prices of commercial banks and shadow banks’credit prices, and it is showed that the interaction between real estate prices and quantitive factors of credit is more significant and sustained than the one between real estate prices and price factors of credit. According to the above conclusions, policy suggestions include that counter-cyclical credit control measures for the real estate industry, to stabilize the real estate investment and consumption behavior by credit constraints, should be continued consistently; commercial banks and the shadow banking system should be targeted at the same time, and credit control policy will be effective in synergistically combination with other policies; the orientation of credit control policy should be based on the quantitive-type, supplemented with price-type, meanwhile policymakers ought to pay attention to the differences between commercial banks and shadow banking.