Research On Shadow Bank,Monetary Policy And Real Estate Regulation

Since 1998,China's real estate market since the monetization reform,the real estate market has experienced another round of rising.With the high real estate market,social and economic structure has undergone profound changes,the real estate market,one of the Xi are affecting the people's livelihood.On the one hand,the real estate prices broad based,led the real estate,infrastructure,building materials and other basic industries investment boom,followed by a large number of jobs increased for the economic development has brought a strong kinetic energy,reform and opening up 40 years Economic prosperity is in the real estate as a leading investment driven by the birth of the economic miracle;the other hand,the real estate prices beyond the people's affordability,has seriously affected the quality of life of the people.The whole society of real estate investment profound changes in the social atmosphere,a large number of resources into the real estate market,leading to the lack of vitality of the real economy.The government authorities have a profound understanding of the real estate market brought about by the "double-edged sword"effect,the central bank since 1998,housing reform has been based on the real estate market development situation is the choice of the implementation of monetary policy practices.However,monetary policy on the real estate market camera choice policy effect is lower than expected,triggering the thinking of scholars and policy makers.With the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2007,the "shadow bank"system has entered the field of view.Reflections on the causes and spread of the financial crisis,it is generally believed that the rapid development of the shadow banking system beyond the scope of global regulatory capacity,leading to the accumulation and spread of systemic financial crisis.China's financial crisis in the impact of the smallest,the fastest recovery,but we will be able to shadow the bank source of this crisis beyond the world it?After the financial crisis,especially around 2013,China's domestic liquidity situation shows that China's shadow banking system is rapidly developing,the scale of more than 50 trillion,and with local government debt risk,real estate bubble risk,capital market leverage risk and corporate debt Risk interaction,fueled,the government's financial regulatory capacity of a serious challenge.There are indications that China's shadow banks have a strong credit creation function and raise the money multiplier.Under the influence of shadow banks,the traditional monetary theory has been challenged.At the practical level,the role of monetary policy regulation has also been weakened by the shadow bank.Therefore,the studing of shadow banks on the real economy and monetary policy impact is of practical significance to explore the regulation of monetary policy on the real estate market.On the basis of the comparison of the shadow banks between China and the United States and the analysis of the capital flows of the Chinese-style shadow banks,this paper introduces the important industry of the real estate industry into the perspective of shadow banks and monetary policy,and analyzes the three important macroeconomic objects The dynamic relationship between the discussion.In the research method,we combine theoretical research with empirical research.In the theoretical research,we first systematically expound the symbiotic relationship between the real estate industry and the financial industry,so as to lay the groundwork for the shadow bank.Secondly,we establish the supply and demand equilibrium model of the real estate industry,and use the classical economic theory Finally,we establish a mathematical model of monetary policy credit transmission channel which includes shadow bank and real estate market,and put forward that the existence of shadow bank has a weakening effect on the effectiveness of monetary policy regulation and control.On the basis of theoretical research,we have carried on the empirical research further.First,we use the VAR model to discuss the impact of shadow banking,real estate and monetary policy response;Secondly,we have established a real estate industry on the monetary policy response time-varying parameter state space model,describes the monetary policy regulation of the real estate market Finally,the GARCH model is used to deal with the shadow bank data,and a polynomial distribution lag model(PDLs)containing the structural impact of the shadow bank is established to carry on the empirical test.The study shows that the structural impact of shadow bank scale can significantly reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy in real estate investment regulation.