Optimal Ordering Model Of Medical Resources For Disaster Relief And Analysis Of Government Optimal Policy

With the progress and development of human society,the contradiction between human and natural environment is deepening day by day,and the frequency and influence degree of disaster are increasing and deepening.Since the last century,natural disasters such as global climate change continue to occur,and the impact on human society has gradually increased,so that fruits of development of many countries have been destroyed.Natural disasters have created great obstacles to the development of human society.After the disaster,because of the uncertainty of demand,the allocation and ordering problem of medical personnel and medical goods is particularly important,especially in the face of different types of disaster situation,there are different needs of medical personnel and medical supplies.When the order of medical resources is insufficient,it is difficult to achieve the desired level of rescue,and cannot effectively rescue the victims.The excessive ordering of medical resources will waste the government's financial resources and occupy the relief materials in the disaster areas.Therefore,how to rationally and effectively configure medical personnel and medical products has become one of the important issues that the government should consider.At the same time,due to the particularity of medical items,medical product suppliers may appear breach of contract,that is not timely supply of medical items or cannot supply the amount specified in the contract.In the face of default risk of medical product suppliers,the government can reduce the risk of these risks by setting reasonable order contracts.When setting up an order contract,the government can consider two policies:the pre-subsidizing policy and the ex post punishment policy.Among them,the pre-subsidy policy is to encourage medical products suppliers to accept the contract and enter the market;the ex post punishment policy is to restrain the medical goods suppliers' breach of contract;when its breach of contract lead to some economic losses,medical supplies suppliers need to pay part of the government penalty to offset part of the economic losses.Therefore,it is particularly important how the government set up the pre-subsidy policy and the ex post punishment policy to maximize the social welfare.In this paper,we will use the newsboy model to analyze the optimal order for post disaster medical supplies;at the same time,according to the medical items supplier default risk situation,construct game model of government and construction of medical goods suppliers,and analyze the optimal decision of government and medical goods suppliers.The research work includes the following two points:First,the post disaster medical staff and medical products optimal allocation(order)of the newsboy model.First of all,according to the particularity of medical personnel and medical articles in disaster relief,and combining different disaster rescue situations,we give the specific premise hypothesis;Secondly,according to the hypothesis,using the newsboy model,established the income function of the government,and according to the KKT conditions are the theoretical model solution,results show that in the process of disaster relief,medical supplies and the cost is inversely proportional to the optimal order quantity;The optimal ordering quantity of medical articles is directly proportional to the optimal allocation of medical personnel,and is proportional to the return subsidies.The optimal allocation(quantity)of medical personnel and medical items needs to meet the basic complementary relationship;In addition,taking into account the influence of the important parameters on the optimal ordering quantity of medical resources,numerical analysis is carried out and the corresponding conclusions are drawn.Second,the game model of the government and the supplier of medical products under the condition of default risk is constructed.First,the game between the government and the supplier of medical products is divided into four stages,and the behaviors of the government or the suppliers of medical products are analyzed respectively;Secondly,by using the reverse analysis method,we first determine the optimal reliability of the supplier of medical products,the optimal production decision and the optimal policy set of the government,and analyze the factors that influence the optimal policy set of the government;Finally,we should relax the hypothesis of economic loss of the default,and analyze the impact of the economic loss of the default on the market competition,and how the government will adjust its optimal policy set.The main innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)the newsboy model is applied to the optimal ordering order after the disaster relief medical personnel and medical items,at the same time considering the different disaster relief situations in the model,the coefficient of complementary medical personnel and medical supplies,and to analyze the impact of government complementary coefficient optimal order quantity;(2)consider medical goods suppliers exist the risk of default,the game between the government and the construction of a principal-agent model of two medical goods suppliers,while facing the analysis of government policy and the optimal ex ante incentive punishment policy of choice,and medical goods suppliers in the face of government's optimal policy set the optimal production and investment decisions.