Research On The Bullwhip Effect Behavior In A Multi-level Supply Chain With Callback Structure

Bullwhip effect is a major issue that threats the stable and smooth performance of inventory,cost,and information of different layers of participants.Generating from the changes of orders,bullwhip effect manifests the information delivery of initial demand through supply chain.Due to the failure of information sharing,the influence of lead time,batch order,and predictive information which is not consistent with actual need,upstream enterprises cannot receive correct signals of demand.Bullwhip effect greatly influences the inventory and causes the increase of inventory cost and the cost of marketing.Value is decreased in excessive inventory,which even affects the smooth performance of supply chain.Currently,the research of bullwhip effect mainly focuses on theoretical study of general model of supply chain,while some supply chain models with practical significance have not been explored yet.This paper,according to the influence of callback mechanism in actual supply chain system,builds a multi-level supply chain model with callback center and quantifies the model.This paper innovatively introduces callback system to the supply chain model.The callback center recalls,classifies,and sends rejected products to retailers and producers.Those rejected products go back to the supply chain after handling.At the same time,this paper studies callback system's impact on bullwhip effect in the order of retailer and manufacturer and offers theoretical support to detailed control measures in multilevel supply chain.It divides the traditional demand market in line with certain market share,with the aim to probe into the mutual influence and differentiation among several retailers.The Order-Up-To inventory strategy and MA forecasting method are used in AR(1)and ARMA(1,1)demand model for the quantification and analysis of bullwhip effect.This paper draws the following conclusion: the callback system and the market share will affect the whole supply chain,and will especially influence the bullwhip effect of different layers of participants.For single retailer or the total order,the decrease of lead time and the increase of demand forecasting precision will reduce bullwhip effect effectively.In the meantime,the introduction to callback system can cut down the bullwhip effect of retailer demand,and a higher callback index relates to a lower bullwhip effect.From the perspective of marker share,retailer should take action to improve its market share after introducing the callback system in order to enhance the drop of bullwhip effect.As for manufacturer,retailer's callback index and manufacturer's callback information will decrease its bullwhip effect to some extent.The higher the callback index is,the lower the manufacturer's bullwhip effect can be.If the comprehensive callback index is fixed,the larger the retailer's callback amount is,the lower the bullwhip effect is.This paper also explores the market share of retailer and finds that only if the lead time of retailer is different manufacturer's bullwhip effect is affected by market share.And a bigger share has more positive significance to retailer who has shorter lead time.