The Calculation And Cause Of Leverage Rate In Liaoning Province Under The Background Of Supply Side Reform

In recent years,the "Northeast Dilemma" has become a hot topic in China.And as the most developed economies in Northeast-Liaoning,it is difficult.The last two years,Liaoning's economic growth rate of the country's first,which not only with the entire Chinese economy into the "three superimposed" economic environment,more importantly,Liaoning Province,its own structural problems.Liaoning is an industrial province,Liaoning secondary industry accounted for a relatively high proportion of industrial added value accounted for 46%of GDP,accounting for 87%of the proportion of the secondary industry.This industrial structure and economic structure is vulnerable to the macro environment and the impact of the market,so the economic slowdown is inevitable.Liaoning economic growth has not only rely on troika to drive,because the economic difficulties of Liaoning is more from the potential economic growth decline.After China's accession to the WTO,the driving force of economic growth in Liaoning mainly comes from the investment and export of fixed assets,and in recent years the investment-driven economic model has come to an end,which is manifested in the beginning of a monetary expansion in the growth of fixed assets More than a unit,while a unit of fixed asset investment expansion brought about by the nominal GDP growth is always less than a unit;while at the same time in the factor cost rise and the deterioration of the overseas economic situation in the context of Liaoning's export competitiveness is also declining year by year,Year of Liaoning 30 years of the first trade deficit;foreign direct investment fell sharply.Export reduction and investment decline,which will affect the employment opportunities in Liaoning,and thus affect the income of residents,thus affecting the consumption of Liaoning.Therefore,from the perspective of the troika,Liaoning's economic investment,exports,consumption will be reduced.It can be seen that Liaoning's economic problems can not find a way from the demand side,need to start from other economic analysis framework.In this paper,we find the solution of Liaoning economy from the supply side.In theory,the supply side is not only the supply of elements.It also includes the supply side reform of the lever.In view of the fact that other documents are rarely discussed from this point of view,Seeking a solution to the economic problems of Liaoning.Based on the above background,this paper calculates the leverage rate and the trend of Liaoning in the past 15 years from the perspective of financial leverage,and obtains the influence factors of leverage ratio through the debt analysis formula.According to the conclusion,it puts forward reasonable suggestions for Liaoning to leverage The Including the following five chapters:Chapter One Introduction.In 2016,the economic growth of Liaoning in the past 10 years,the first negative growth,this paper explores the financial growth behind the negative economic leap in Liaoning,elicited the full object of the study-leverage,and describes the theoretical and practical significance of the topic.Then,the research status of the research on the domestic and foreign of the lever is reviewed,and the structural framework and research method of this paper are summarized.Finally,the shortcomings and innovations of the research are put forward.Chapter 2,related concepts and theoretical basis.After the concept of supply-side reform and leverage,this paper puts forward the significance of studying the leverage ratio in the background of supply-side reform.As the meaning of leverage is quite different in academia,this paper first defines the concept of leverage,and selects the indicators to measure the leverage ratio,and the three reasons for selecting this index,and draws an analytical framework for analyzing the leverage ratio of Liaoning.This paper also defines the relationship between supply side reform and deleveraging,and points out that leveraging is the most important conclusion of supply side reform.The third chapter,the calculation of Liaoning leverage and potential risks.Based on the definition of leverage ratio and the formula of calculation in Chapter 2,this chapter measures the leverage of Liaoning as a whole and the sub-sector,and analyzes the hidden dangers behind the leverage ratio.This paper also compares the leverage ratio of Liaoning Province with the main provinces of China,and makes a more comprehensive judgment on the situation of Liaoning levers.In the fourth chapter,this paper decomposes the index of "debt/GDP",and analyzes two formulas of high leverage in Liaoning from the perspectives of traffic and increment,and analyzes the factors of high leverage in Liaoning by using these two formulas,It is concluded that Liaoning's financing structure is too dependent on debt financing,Liaoning's investment rate is too high,capital return is relatively low,capital in the enterprise,industry,there are structural mismatch between the three conclusions.Chapter 5,conclusions and recommendations.After empirical analysis,this chapter draws the conclusion and puts forward the supply side suggestion for Liaoning to leverage:First,"deleveraging" is combined with the reform of financial supply side,the second is to promote the supply side reform of the real economy,Third,the deleveraging policy must also take into account the impact of gross national product(GDP)on debt.The main contributions of this paper are as follows:First,in the context of supply-side reform,from the perspective of leverage to re-scan the Liaoning economy,this paper first based on a series of data to measure the macro-leverage in Liaoning Province(excluding the financial sector)In some of the major provinces.And then calculate the leverage rate of the resident sector,non-financial enterprise department and government department of Liaoning province.Secondly,this paper divides the index of leverage into the analysis frame of the factors affecting the leverage ratio of Liaoning,and then from the traffic level and stock level A detailed analysis of the formation factors of leverage in Liaoning.Based on the above research and combined with the supply side reform,put forward a number of policy recommendations to reduce the leverage ratio of Liaoning.