Research On Risk Identification And Prevention Of P2P On-line Loan Platform In China

Peer-to-Peer Lending breaks through the traditional mode of borrowing,as one of the most important form of the Internet financial,it is effectively realize the rational allocation of funds,broaden the financing channels of small and medium enterprises and individuals,to some extent,it meets the requirements of their borrowing.In 2007,China's first P2 P online lending platform was established,which marked the initial stage of development of China's online loan industry.In 2013,the online loan industry entered a period of rapid expansion.The number of new platforms increased more than that of the previous five years,and the market share kept expanding.However,emerging things from generation to maturity is a process of constant exploration and improvement,as is the online loan industry.Behind this "savage" growing,network information asymmetry caused a lot of adverse selection and moral hazard problems,no threshold rules of the industry to enter attracted many non-financial institutions to chase the profits,the relevant laws and regulations is not sound and supervision does not reach the designated position caused industry regulatory arbitrage,all this adverse phenomenon is a serious threat to the safe of the lender's capital.Broke out in 2014 with the cumulative risks,credit platform failures,the word "run","lost","illegal fund-raising" all day long dominated the news headlines,net lending industry is facing unprecedented crisis of confidence.Therefore,how to improve the risk identification ability of investors and guarantee their financial security is of great importance to the benign development of P2 P lending market.In such a context,the problem of risk identification and management has aroused more and more attention of scholars at home and abroad,and becomes the core of P2 P research.From the perspective of investors' decision-making,this paper studies the risk identification of P2 P lending platforms.Supported by credit rationing theory,information asymmetry theory,herding effect theory,credit risk theory and regulatory arbitrage theory,based on the existing research of domestic and foreign scholars,this paper analyzes the current status,existing problems,risks and causes of China's online loan industry.Then use the principal component analysis(PCA)to build P2 P network platform loan risk identification model,from the micro perspective,the scale,background,guarantee mode and loan information of the online loan platform are analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively.According to the model,the main factors that influence the risk size of the platform can be divided into four main components.The main components of the first group:Whether the creditor's right is transferable,normal operation time and whether to join the supervisory association.The second group of main components: registered capital,platform background and whether there is a guarantee mode.The third group of principal components: the amount of borrowing per capita,the average term of borrowing,and whether there is a bank deposit.The fourth group of principal components: average yield and risk reserve.The four main components together explained the platform's risk size of 69.473%.The model fitting effect is good,which can provide some references for investors' decision.At the end of the article,the author puts forward some Suggestions on risk prevention for online loan platform,borrower,investor and national macro-control.