Research On Risk Mangement Of High-end Industrial Aluminum Profiles Upgrading Production Project In LR Company

Due to the influence of national policies and the continuous expansion of social application fields,aluminum alloy profiles will be more and more favored by various industries.The construction of ecological civilization proposed by the 18th National Congress of the Party puts energy conservation and waste of resources reduction in a very important position.The need for light weight development in the automobile manufacturing,rail transit,aviation and other industries becomes even more urgent,which provides a huge interest increasing space for the use of high-end industrial aluminum profiles(HIAP).In view of only a few domestic enterprises have the ability to produce HIAP till now,it will become a development trend of the industry for the current aluminum material enterprises to upgrade their production capacity or build new project to increase HIAP production.With the process of design,construction,trial production to normal operation,the upgrading production projects of HIAP has many characteristics,such as whole life cycle is long,investment amount is large,scope is wide,and the management is difficult.The characteristics would make the project inevitably face up with some uncertain factors that have an impact on the expected objectives of the project during the implementation of the project.It is necessary to put forward a scientifical method of risk management to reduce the project risk loss.At present,there is not mature,systematical,and whole life cycle risk management theory to provide effective guidance for the expansion of production capacity project of HIAP.Therefore,it is of great significance to carry out the research on the whole life cycle risk management for the upgrading production project of the HIAP.Focused on the problem of risk management in the upgrading production capacity project of HIAP,this paper constructs a whole life cycle risk management model of the upgrading production capacity project,with the guidance of the whole life cycle risk management theory,to discuss the whole life cycle risk management system of pre-project,capital construction,production preparation period and operation period.And this paper also provides a risk management guide for the project decision-makers to have an effectively risk management method,ensuring the implementation of the project smoothly and reaching the goal.The content of this paper is following by:1)Using brainstorming method and fish bone map method comprehensively to identify the risk factors in the whole life cycle of the project,the list of risk factors is established through summing up and sorting out the risk factors.2)Evaluating the risk of project construction and operation with the methods of Delphi and matrix analysis.3)Evaluating the investment and financing risk in project’s financial risk through measuring the profitability,solvency and sensitivity of the project,and evaluating the risk of income distribution and cost overrun in the financial risk with the expert analysis results.4)According to the results of project risk assessment,the paper puts forward corresponding measures for project construction operation risk and financial risk respectively.Based on the project risk management research of the HIAP expansion project of LR Company,this paper builds a whole life-cycle risk management model for this type of projects in the research process,and tests the effectiveness of research methods and tools with a variety of analysis tools and methods.The conclusion of this paper would help the manager accumulate risk management experience,and provide them a reference for similar projects in the implementation process of risk management.