The Analysis Of Intergenerational Income Mobility In Urban And Rural Residents Based On Nonparametric Method

In the early stage of reform and opening up,the level of China's economic development was low.In order to achieve rapid economic growth,some people and some areas are supported to get rich first by state policies.After that,"trickle-down effects" are used to allow the first-riches to bring in the rich and eventually common prosperity.In recent years,China's GDP has maintained a growth rate of over 6%for a long time and economic construction is in full swing.At the same time,according to official data,the Gini coefficient has been higher than the international warning line 0.4.According to a study released by the World Institute on Inequities,the income inequality of Chinese residents ranks seventh in the world.The top 10%of China's richest population accounted for 41%of GDP.The huge gains brought about by the country's economic development are in the hands of only a few which deviated from the original intention of "getting rich first and driving rich" The existence of various second generation social phenomenon,such as the second generation of officer the second generation of rich,the second generation of poor,second generation of migrant workers,which leaked a message that China is a country with a low intergenerational income mobility and the passing of intcrgenerational economic status has shown signs of intensification.The report of the 19th NPC pointed out:"The major contradictions in our society have been transformed into the contradictions between the growing needs of a better life and unbalanced development."China has been in the stage of middle and high income development.It is facing an unprecedented opportunity to leap to the ranks of high-income countries as well as the danger of falling into the "middle and high income trap." The solution to the issue of income inequality is the key to avoiding the middle-income trap,otherwise the Chinese economy is likely to stagnate.Intergenerational income transfer is an important reason for increasing income inequality.Recognizing the level of intergenerational income transfer in Chinese society is of great significance to reducing the ingap,establishing a fair and reasonable income distribution pol come icy and promoting the harmonious development of economy and society.By using the CHIP data and from the angles of linear and nonlinear,this paper study the level of intergenerational income mobility,trends and differences of the urban and rural residents,based on the methods of multiple parametric regression(linear regression,quantile regression)and non-parametric regression.The details are as follows:Firstly,by using the multiple linear regression model,this paper analyzes the intergenerational income mobility in the mean value and its changing trend of urban and rural residents from 1988 to 2013.Secondly,the quantile regression method is used to calculate the urban and rural Residents intergenerational income mobility with the change of sub-site;Thirdly,by using the local linear regression method,this paper fit the logarithmic curve of father's and son's income between the year 1988-2013.Fourthly,by introducing dummy variables,this paper analyze the influence of gender and educational level on the intergenerational income mobility of different income groups.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:First,intergenerational income mobility parameter estimation results display that(1)the mean of intergenerational income mobility of the countryside residents shows the trend of first increase and then decrease,and the mean of intergenerational income elasticity of the city residents is on the rise.The mean of intergenerational income elasticity of the city is higher than that of the countryside;(2)the elasticity of intergenerational income in urban areas was first increased and then decreased with the change of quantile,and the backward "U" type was inverted.Rural intergenerational income elasticity decreases monotonously with the change of quantile.Second,the non-paramctric estimation results of the generational income mobility show that(1)thc fitting curve between the parent's income logarithm and the offspring's income logarithm is non-linear,and there is a significant difference in the intergenerational income elasticity of households in different income ranges;(2)with the increase of years,the intergenerational income elasticity of rural residents has decreased first and then increased,and the intergenerational income elasticity of urban residents has increased year by year;(3)generally,the intergenerational income mobility of urban residents is lower than that of rural arcas.Third,gender and education are important factors affecting the intergenerational income mobility.The intergenerational income elasticity of the father and daughter is greater than that of the father and son.There is no gender discrimination in the generation of Intergenerational income transfer among urban households.Althoughducation is the important path of intergenerational income transmission,different education levels have different influences on the urban and rural intergenerational income mobility.Primary education and junior secondary education have very little effect on improving intergenerational income mobility.Increasing investment in higher education at or above universities will instead inhibit intergenerational income mobility.Increasing the investment in senior secondary education is conducive to improving intergenerational income mobility in urban households.Based on empirical research,this paper argues that it is an important means to eliminate gender discrimination,guarantee equal work sharing and increase investment in education in urban high schools and eliminate the household registration system is to increase the mobility of intergenerational income and reduce the income gap between urban and rural areas.