Study On The Operation Mechanism Of "Price Insurance + Futures" Of Agricultural Products In China

The increase of agricultural products' marketization level in our country leads to the market risk constantly strengthened along,so the establishment of effective risk management methods for agricultural products is an important guarantee for the stable production of agriculture.Futures and options for agricultural products are the most effective tools during lots of agricultural products price risk management.But in fact,the development level of agricultural product futures market in China is low.There is a tortuous way for agricultural futures during the process of providing financial services to agricultural substantial economy.Together with agricultural product price insurance,the agricultural commodity futures market's service efficiency has been enhanced to the agricultural substantial economy.From 2014 to 2018,the government policy documents named No.1 file provide important policy guidance for its development.The policy guidance says that agricultural products "price insurance + futures " is an important approach to financial services of agricultural modernization,although domestic scholars have disputes over the mode of operation.So the main work of this thesis is to promote the operation mode of "price insurance + futures" for agricultural products,and put forward the idea of solving the problem of its promotion on the basis of scholars' inquiry.Firstly,based on the theory of complex adaptive(CAS)as the theoretical basis,the thesis has analyzed the characteristics on complexity of the agricultural products "price insurance + futures"mode,as well as agricultural products "price insurance + futures"system operation mechanism.Secondly,with Xinhu Futures corn "price insurance + futures" operation in the form of case analysis,the thesis has analyzed the application of agricultural products "price insurance + futures"system operation mechanism,and found that Xinhu Futures' operation corn has fully applied the complexity characteristics and operation mechanism of agricultural product "price insurance + futures"system in the promotion process of the pilot.Again,to illustrate the working process of the operation mechanism of "price insurance + futures" system of agricultural products,the thesis has used binary Logistic regression model and stimulus-response model of the complex adaptive system(CAS)one and after.On the basis of analysis the influence factors of the family farmers' willingness to participate in the price-risk management of agricultural products in binary Logistic regression model,which one new type of agricultural management main body,and choice of its significant influence factors——value of fixed assets,the thesis has analyzed stimulus-response process of agricultural products "price insurance + futures"system.The conclusion is that the risk management strategy to optimize the family farm,at the same time,also to strengthen the function of the system.Finally,it is concluded that the operation characteristics of agricultural products "price insurance + futures"system,and the thesis put forward reasonable suggestions.