Rate Making For Agricultural Revenue Insurance Products

The current policy-oriented agricultural insurance in China is mainly based on cost insurance,which mainly undertakes the risk of agricultural products reduction.However,with the improvement of farmers' demand for agricultural risk protection,policy based agricultural insurance needs to be upgraded,and the development direction of policy based agricultural insurance has become a subject that needs to be studied.The income insurance is able to cover the risk of production loss and the fluctuation of farm product price.It has been widely used abroad and has attracted wide attention in recent years.In 2018,the central document No.1 put forward: "explore the development of rice,wheat and corn,the three largest grain crops,complete cost insurance and income insurance pilot".The core technology of developing income insurance products is rate determination.This paper studies the related issues of income insurance premium rate.First of all,literature review is used to sort out the related literature at home and abroad.Foreign studies mainly discuss the function selection in the income insurance design and the guiding role of income insurance on agricultural production;domestic scholars have studied the definition,feasibility and design principles of income insurance,and reached a consensus on the good social welfare effect of income insurance.There are few achievements in systematic research on the pricing of agricultural products income insurance.Secondly,based on the principle of income insurance rate determination,this paper summarizes three key problems of rate determination,that is,data selection,trend income sequence processing,rate determination model selection,and the processing methods of three key problems are discussed in detail,and production quantity and price sequence processing program and trend income are obtained.Some important conclusions such as fitting step specification,rate determining model selection criteria and so on.Furthermore,this paper summarizes the relevant experience of American income insurance,and draws three key steps in the determination of the rate of income insurance in the United States: the hypothesis of the price distribution of agricultural products,the correlation between the determination of the price and the output,and the selection of the distribution function.At the same time,this paper holds that the advanced experience of the United States should be drawn from the subdivision of the income insurance products,the selection of the underwriting area,the dynamic adjustment of the income insurance of the option and so on.Finally,taking the wheat of Shandong Province as an example,the Census-ARIMA model was used to determine the rate of the wheat income insurance,and the income insurance rates of Dezhou,Heze,Ji'nan and Weifang in Shandong province were 0.0533,0.1409,0.1072 and 0.0780 respectively under the premise of the level of 100%.The income insurance of China should be divided into risk zoning and rate subdivision.