| Gold is a kind of special goods with various attributes such as commodity attribute,monetary attribute and investment attribute.As a commodity,gold has excellent physical and chemical properties and is an important composite material for jewelry decoration,industry,medical equipment,electronic communication,aerospace and other industries.On the other hand,gold,as a natural currency,has the advantages of resisting inflation,hedging,and universal,so it is widely used in foreign exchange reserves,individual and institutional investment.In October 2002,China established its first local gold exchange,the Shanghai gold exchange.From then on,China's gold market began to develop steadily.Since 2013,China's consumption of gold has been the highest in the world.As China's international status and economic strength has increased,in 2015 the bank of China and China construction bank to join the London gold exchange line pricing events such as propulsion,our country has obtained certain gold independent pricing power.Therefore,it is very meaningful to study the factors affecting the gold price in China.From the aspects of theory can provide relevant explanation factors of gold price mechanism in our country,from the aspect of practice can help China's gold market investors and regulators to better investment gold,gold management.Based on extensive reading relevant literature and the influential factors of gold prices on the international and domestic gold comb,on the basis of the present situation and problems of the basic research of China's gold long-term,medium-term and short-term factors.Qualitative analysis is how to influence the supply and demand first gold,clear the supply and demand for long-term,short-term Angle,this paper studies the international gold price and the relationship between domestic prices,with the aid of OLS regression,by statistical method,from the Angle of multiple dynamic relation between domestic prices and international gold price for empirical testing.Due to the influence factors of the price of gold is very complicated,we need not only to consider the international,domestic important macroeconomic variables are also closely associated with gold prices in China,so the VECM model of residual extracted as the international gold price cannot be explained by changes in the domestic gold section,embedding mature international gold price model in our country,and appropriate to join the local factors,summed up the five variables are respectively the price of oil,the consumer price index,nominal effective exchange rate,7 days of interbank lending interest rate,currency and the quasi currency to explain changes in gold prices in China.In this paper,through theoretical analysis and empirical test of the method of combining the got three main conclusions:first,the gold supply and demand gap is the long-term factors affecting China's gold,gold prices in China held steady change significantly when the gap of supply and demand,the correlation is low.Mainly because 80%of China's gold supply from the mineral gold,gold minerals from exploration,mining,investment production need 8 to 10 years,so it is difficult for gold supply according to the market to make rapid changes.And gold is a commodity that is not easily consumed.The demand for gold can also be turned into a gold supplier,and this shift has no data record,so supply and demand data are not the actual supply and demand for gold in the market.Second,there is a strong correlation between international gold price and domestic gold price.In the long term,there is a co-integration relationship.In the cointegration equation,the international gold price changes 1%,and the gold price in China changes 0.81%.The correction factor in the error correction model is positive,which means that once the gold price is formed,it is very easy to maintain the inertia and continue on this basis.The world gold price has a unidirectional granger causality to China.The analysis of impulse response function shows that the gold price in China is very sensitive to the changes of international gold price,and it changes rapidly in the short term.Third,China's gold and oil prices,CPI,interest rate,exchange rate and the long-term cointegration relationship between money supply and very stable build VAR model can explain the international gold price cannot be explained by changes in the domestic prices of 98%.The correction in the error correction model is negative,indicating that it will be corrected to long-term equilibrium in the short term.The price of oil,CPI,interest rate and money supply will be revised to correct the gold price.Granger causality test results indicate that the price of oil and gold prices are granger causality,the interest rate can be one-way granger cause changes in the price of gold,gold prices to a one-way granger cause exchange rate and changes in the money supply,while the CPI and gold does not exist in our country the granger causality of the data.In the variance decomposition,except for the contribution rate of gold price,CPI and exchange rate are the two most contributing factors,reaching more than 5%in the 12th issue.Finally,from the conclusion of this paper,investors,participants and regulators in China's gold market put forward investment Suggestions and policy Suggestions.For investors,should clear the purpose of,and thus choose gold investment deadline,fit properly to buy gold,the proportion of gold in the portfolio is unfavorable and exorbitant,pay attention to the diversification of investment varieties.For the government,we should focus on analyzing the future gold trend,gradually increase the investment in gold,establish and improve the gold trading legislation,increase the gold investment variety,and encourage the public to participate in the gold trading medium. |
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