Study On Comprehensive Model Of House Price Data Calculation Based On Prediction Interval Theory

After the reform and opening-up,with the deepening of the reform of the housing system,the development of the real estate industry in China is very rapid,and the market size of the real estate industry is becoming larger and larger.At the same time,in recent years,domestic commercial housing prices rose sharply,more and more people feel the real difficulties,whether the benign development of the real estate industry,whether prices steady growth are closely related to people's livelihood,housing prices have become very concerned about people and the problems of the government.However,the characteristics of housing price dynamics,randomness and instability directly lead to statistics and calculation of its inherent law,and it is much harder to predict its specific value in a certain period of time.Therefore,it is very necessary to calculate housing price data by appropriate methods.Study on calculation method of price data,firstly combing the development of China's real estate industry and the status quo,analysis of the research status at home and abroad on housing prices and housing prices forecast of statistical estimates,the necessity and feasibility analysis of price calculation;secondly,the in-depth analysis of the price factors and price data calculation,and finally to the thought school of Bayesian statistics as guidance,using the normal model parameter estimation,chi square test,prediction interval estimation of classical statistical theory and time series theory to construct the comprehensive model and price data used in the empirical study of Wuhan real estate industry.The model can be accurately estimated prices data rules and reduce the number of complex factors on the impact of price calculation,estimate a time interval prediction of future prices,make a quantitative prediction of future prices,provide factual basis and data support for the government's macroeconomic regulation and control and management of real estate prices,but also provide important data for cost calculation method the related research department.