Empirical Study On Commercial Housing Price Prediction Of Urban Housing Based On Panel Model

In mid December 2016,the central economic work conference proposed that "house is used for living,not for speculation",housing prices have become a relatively hot research topic.A better understanding of the law of real estate market changes and the rational formulation of policies requires an in-depth study of the factors affecting housing prices,and a reasonable prediction of future trends.Is closely related to economic indicators and price fluctuations,the purpose of this paper is to study the residential real estate prices and economic indicators,according to changes in economic indicators,analysis of residential housing prices,can make a reasonable forecast of future price movements.This article focuses on residential commercial housing market,using statistical and econometric knowledge to carry out in-depth study is of great significance.In this paper,the panel data and time series data of real estate prices in 6 cities in China are used to analyze the relationship between China's real estate prices and macro factors in terms of spatial dimension and time dimension.This paper chooses Beijing,Tianjin,Shijiazhuang,Shanghai,Nanjing,Changchun 6 city,2002-2015 years of residential housing prices,residential real estate area,real estate development investment,population density,local GDP index data.The use of SPSS,EVIEWS5.0 and SAS statistical software for data processing is divided into two stages,the first stage uses only the price sequence information,build the model for time series prediction analysis,according to the minimum AIC principle,established time series,with the price of residential housing difference time series model,forecast 6 city in commercial housing the price of the next 2 years,rising trend year by year.The second stages use the economic index information to establish a panel model,firstly,data preprocessing eliminate heteroscedasticity,then through stationarity test,cointegration test,after F inspection,Hausman inspection,establish a fixed effect model and forecasting based on the panel data model.Finally,we get the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and housing prices,predict the future trend,and put forward reasonable proposals.