Research On The Risk Spillover Effects Of China's Shadow Banking System On Traditional Commercial Banks

Since its development in 2007,China's shadow banking has continued to expand in scale,and risks have also accumulated.The shadow banking business has triggered a number of commercial bank default events,and the risk spillover effect between various shadow banking institutions and commercial banks has emerged.This paper analyzes the large-scale expansion of shadow banking,which itself has high-leverage,avoidance of supervision and other risk characteristics,and through the complex business operation model and capital chain continue to extend the risk to traditional commercial banks;various types of traditional commercial banks in their own On the basis of risk,the shadow bank's overflow risk is superimposed,and the risk level is greatly enhanced.When a commercial bank produces a crisis or a risk event in a shadow bank,the commercial bank's risk value rises rapidly.Among them,the shadow banking institutions' risk spillover intensity to state-owned commercial banks is even stronger.Significantly,the risk spillover intensity of joint-stock banks and city commercial banks is small.This article first qualitatively analyzes the risk spillover effect of shadow banking on commercial banks,and then uses the GARCH-VaR model and CoVaR model from the perspective of external shadow banking institutions to calculate the risk spillover level of shadow banking for commercial banks in China,and analyzes it from a quantitative perspective.The shadow bank's risk spillover effect on China's commercial banks;and gives corresponding suggestions to realize the shadow banking under the effective supervision environment,reduce the risk spillover effect,and achieve the stable development of shadow banking and traditional commercial banks.