Research On Risk Assessment And Countermeasures Of Xinjiang Local Government Debt

The report to the 19 th national congress of the communist party of China(CPC)calls for resolute efforts to prevent and defuse major risks.The continuous expansion of local government debt in China has drawn the attention of all walks of life.The central government has introduced many policies to strengthen the management of local government debt.In 2014,no.43 of the state council put forward the establishment of a standardized debt management mechanism to prevent and defuse risks of local government debt.In 2018,the central government also issued a document requiring reasonable determination of the debt limit of local governments in different regions,timely completion of the replacement of outstanding debt,regulation of the investment and financing activities of financial enterprises,local governments and local state-owned enterprises,and prevention and resolution of local debt risks.Xinjiang is also facing the problem of preventing the risk of local government debt.Xinjiang began to issue local government bonds in 2015.Local government debt has played a certain role in promoting Xinjiang's economic development,and Xinjiang's economy has maintained a good momentum of development.But too much government debt can hurt the economy.Xinjiang local government debt is also gradually showing a certain risk.The Xinjiang government issued a series of documents to strengthen the management of local government debt.Under this background,this paper takes the risk of local government debt in Xinjiang as the research object,takes the relevant theories and the actual situation of local government debt in Xinjiang as the research basis,and studies the risk of local government debt in Xinjiang and its prevention countermeasures.This is of great significance for preventing and defusing the risks of local government debt in Xinjiang,strengthening the risk management of local government debt and making good efforts to prevent risks.Based on relevant theories of local government debt and local government debt risk,this paper analyzes the current situation of local government debt in Xinjiang from 2015 to 2018 from two aspects of total amount and structure,based on the information disclosed when Xinjiang issues government bonds.KMV model is used to calculate the default probability and default distance of Xinjiang local government debt risk from 2019 to 2021,so as to evaluate the debt risk.Panel data of 14 prefectures and prefectures in Xinjiang from 2016 to 2018 were used to explore the influencing factors of local government debt risk in Xinjiang.Finally,based on the above qualitative and quantitative analysis,countermeasures and Suggestions are proposed.The results show that :(1)in terms of the total amount,the scale of local government debt in Xinjiang is fair,and the scale change is greatly affected by the relevant policies of the central government.From the level of government,mainly concentrated in the county government;From the point of view of borrowing main body,it mainly focuses on the government and financing platform companies.From the perspective of debt financing sources,bank loans have been transferred to local government bonds;From the perspective of debt maturity,with the completion of the large-scale debt replacement work,there is no large-scale debt maturity.There are three risk manifestations of local government debt in Xinjiang: first,the weak overall economic and financial strength affects the solvency;second,the debt risks of different regions are obviously differentiated;Third,financing platform companies increase the risk of implicit government debt.(2)the probability of local government debt default in Xinjiang is very low,indicating that with the end of the largescale debt replacement in 2018,the risk of local government debt in Xinjiang is relatively low.(3)GDP growth rate has a restraining effect on local government debt risk;Per capita transfer payment promotes the risk of debt,but inhibits the risk of special debt.The degree of marketization can restrain the debt risk,but promote the special debt.The rate of inflation promotes the risk of special debt,but not the risk of general debt.The debt risk of urbanization needs to be further explored.The industrial structure has no significant effect on debt risk.Finally,based on the above qualitative and quantitative analysis,this paper advances some countermeasures for the prevention of debt risk: should by promoting economic sustainable development of high quality,cultivating tax sources to enhance financial strength,improve the system of transfer payments,strengthen risk monitoring and promoting the development of financing platform shift key areas,strengthening local government debt management from several aspects to guard against and dissolve the local government debt risk in Xinjiang.