Study On The Trade Effect Of Anhui's OFDI

With the strategy of "going out","The Belt and Road" strategy and other opening up policy implementing,China is opening to the outside world and Chinese enterprises actively participate in international division of labor market,take resources of overseas to production.Enterprises in Anhui Province which has made achievements of OFDI.How did it going about the development and trend of OFDI in Anhui and Central China? Does it bring new opportunities or challenges to economic development and trade development?From the perspective of foreign OFDI's effect on trade,this paper starts from two aspects of the effect on import and effect on export of OFDI.Firstly,it introduces its concept,and summarizes the existing research results by combing the relevant literature at home and abroad.OFDI has both potential substitution effect and promotion effect on trade.Secondly,from the perspective of comparison,this paper makes a general analysis and an enterprise level analysis of the current situation of Anhui's OFDI.The total analysis of the stock and flow of OFDI in the six provinces of Anhui province and central China,showing an increasing trend of development.The proportion of Anhui Province in the six provinces in Central China is increasing year by year.The enterprise level analysis is conducted from the enterprise category,business scope and OFDI's countries and regions.On this basis,this paper studies the trade effect of OFDI in Anhui and the central region from two perspectives: theoretical analysis and empirical analysis.First of all,through theoretical analysis,the influence mechanism of OFDI's effect on trade is explained.And the purpose and motivation of different types of trade and OFDI are different.OFDI's effect on trade differ from different types of trade and OFDI.The empirical test used the annual data of 1994-2016 years in Anhui province and the panel data of six provinces in 2003-2016 years to test the effect on import and effect on export of OFDI.Based on the inspection of the annual time series data of Anhui Province,the cointegration test model and the Grainger causality test are selected to establish the vector autoregressive model,the impulse response and the variance decomposition model.The empirical test results show that there is a negative correlation between the import of Anhui province and the foreign direct investment.There is a certain substitution effect between foreign direct investment and import in Anhui province.The change of foreign direct investment in Anhui first produces a certain export promotion effect,and then produces export restraining effect,and the export effect gradually decreases with the change of the lag period.Based on the test of the panel data of the six provinces in the central China,using the stepwise regression method,the OFDI and other economic factors that affect trade are introduced into the model,and the fixed effect model or the random effect model are selected through Hausman test.The regression results show that the OFDI in the middle six provinces has a certain positive effect on import and export trade.