A Study On The Correlation Between China’s OFDI And Export To U.s. From The Perspective Of Global Value Chain

With the deepening of economic globalization and regional economic integration,the division of labor in the global value chain has become the new normal of economic globalization,and countries’ participation in global economic activities cannot be separated from foreign trade and investment.At the same time,China’s economy has entered a new normal,moving from a period of rapid growth over the past three decades to a stage of medium-high speed development featuring high efficiency,low cost and sustainability.As the world’s largest economy,how to actively and effectively promote China’s export to the United States and the development of OFDI will have an important impact on the sustained and stable growth of China’s economy.Therefore,this paper studies the correlation effect and influencing factors between China’s OFDI of the United States and export trade,so as to provide policy Suggestions for promoting the healthy development of sino-us trade relations in the new era and the formulation of China’s economic and trade policies.Firstly,this paper calculates China’s value-added exports to the United States according to the value-added trade theory,and finds that the scale of China’s value-added exports to the United States is generally smaller than the total value of export trade,which means that the scale of foreign trade directly expressed by the total value of export trade actually exaggerates China’s gains in foreign trade.In this paper,OFDI’s correlation degree with exports and value-added exports is constructed to measure the correlation degree between OFDI and exports of 15 industries in China and the United States from 2007 to 2015.Found that China’s OFDI of U.S.industries and export trade increase year by year,the correlation degree between the correlation coefficient between the intensity factors of different industries is very significant difference in performance,less in the natural resources industry representative,did not change significantly in the labor-intensive industry,increase significantly in the capital and technology intensive industry,especially in the capital and technology intensive industry information transmission/software and information technology services OFDI increasingly close relevance with export trade.Secondly,based on the theoretical analysis of investment motivation,this paper USES the trade gravity model to discuss the correlation effect of China’s OFDI with the export trade of the United States.Empirical study shows that China’s OFDI against the United States generally significantly promote the development of China’s export trade,the us OFDI can significantly promote the export trade with the United States,positive promoting effect of export trade in producer services and public services is more noticeable,in the second industry and the consumer services investment not export trade growth.Then,this paper builds an econometric model to explore the contribution of various influencing factors to the variation of OFDI and export trade correlation between China and the United States,and conducts an empirical analysis on the causes and mechanism of the correlation between OFDI and trade.The results show that the market size,high-tech endowment,tariff barriers and investment system barriers of the United States will have an important impact on the correlation between China’s OFDI and the export of the United States.Finally,based on the results of theoretical analysis and empirical research,this paper proposes policies and Suggestions on how to improve the correlation between China’s OFDI and U.S.exports.