Research On The Risk Of Shadow Banking In China

With the emergence of the us subprime mortgage crisis in 2008,shadow banking started to attract more and more attention.Many see shadow banking as a direct cause of the crisis.In recent years,the scale of shadow banking in China has been expanding,which has become an important part of China's financial market.Shadow Banks in our country has to a certain extent,solve the social financing problems,especially the financial difficulties of difficult financing of small and medium-sized enterprises,the active market economy,but the potential risk factors and in the shadow banking supervision system is not perfect in our country,the stability of financial system in our country have a big test.In recent years,the frequent occurrence of trust product payment crisis and private financial "running road" has forced us to pay more attention to the hidden risks behind shadow Banks.In this paper,the author analyzes the related literatures of shadow banking researches at home and abroad,and establishes the main line of analysis of risk performance,risk transmission and risk prevention of shadow banking.First of all,this paper based on the theory of the shadow banking related concept and operation mode,it is concluded that the main source of China's shadow banking risk is a lack of risk prevention and rescue mechanism,and avoid regulation leads to operation risk,credit risk and moral risk caused by information asymmetry,high leverage increase the management risk,term mismatch cause liquidity risk,etc.Through the analysis of shadow banking risk conduction mechanism,the study found that not only can China's shadow banking risk transverse conduction effect commercial banking system stability,and may also be longitudinal transmission to the monetary policy regulation system,weaken the effect of the implementation of monetary policy.Secondly,on the basis of qualitative analysis,it empirically tests the transmission effect of shadow banking risk.Based on many indicators such as shadow banking scale,commercial bank stability and monetary policy control system,the paper constructs a multivariate nonlinear regression model,and introduces the VAR model to do empirical research.The results showed that along with the growth of the domestic scale of shadow banking,it and stationarity of commercial bank has formed a certain threshold effect,this means that with the expansion of the scale,will make the bank stability levels rise after fall first.The existence and scale expansion of shadow banking in China has weakened the effectiveness of monetary policy.In particular,shadow banking has led to a reduction in the size of new credit in the short term,resulting in the growth of new credit in the long run.Shadow banking has a significant credit creation function,which can reduce the real money supply in a short time,and can increase the money supply in a long time.The continuous expansion of shadow banking is conducive to social and economic development,and the consumer price index has been falling rapidly in a short period of time,which has been rising for a long time.Finally,this paper analyzes the foreign shadow banking risk regulatory system development experience and lessons,and according to the characteristics of the shadow banking in China and policy environment,puts forward some Suggestions of perfecting shadow banking risk regulation.It mainly includes three aspects: the comprehensive supervision and the supervision mode of classified supervision,the improvement of the monetary policy adjustment system,and the complementary of market restraint and government supervision.