Research On The Consumption Structure Of Rural Residents In China Under The New Normal

With the rapid development of China's economy,the consumption structure has also changed.From the former survival type to the development type,the consumption structure now has the trend of changing to the enjoyment type.The economic development can promote the upgrading of the consumption structure.At the same time,the transformation of the consumption structure has a certain effect on the transformation and upgrading of the economic structure.In particular,the adjustment of the consumption structure plays a very important role in stimulating the development of the economy,especially in the case of the slowdown of the new normal economic development.After reading a lot of literature on consumption structure,I find that there is less research on the consumption structure of rural residents under the new normal,while the consumption of rural residents can not be ignored.This paper summarizes the existing literature and theoretical basis,the new norm of Chinese rural residents consumption as the research object,through the relevant theoretical knowledge of statistics and econometrics,on China's rural residents' consumption structure by using the method of literature,comparative analysis,dynamic analysis and static analysis,ELES extended linear expenditure analysis method and analysis methods to do the deep research on the present situation and the influence factors of the consumption structure of rural residents before and after the new normal GMM generalized moment estimation.Objective to describe the consumption status,characteristics and influencing factors of rural residents in the new normal in China,and predict the consumption of rural residents in 2017-2020 by binomial curve prediction method.The research shows that there are great differences between the consumption structure of different income groups,in the new normal before the rural residents' marginal propensity to consume is relatively large,but in the new normal,due to the economic slowdown,the rural residents' marginal propensity to consume a gradual slowdown has weakened phenomenon.Moreover,the child dependency ratio on consumption expenditure of rural residents has significant positive effects;the elderly dependency ratio of consumption expenditure of rural residents has negative influence;the rate of inflation and housing prices will curb consumption structure upgrading;the per capita disposable income and the structure of the three industry accounted for an increase of conducive to the upgrading of consumption structure.After forecasting the consumption structure of rural residents,we find that consumption of medical,educational,cultural,entertainment and consumption will become a new consumption hot spot,and too much consumption will inhibit other consumption expenditure,which is not conducive to upgrading consumption structure.The prediction analysis shows that education and medical care will become a new consumption point,and the rural residents in China will be able to build a well-off society in an all-round way in 2020.Based on research and analysis,this paper finds out the problems existing in the development of rural residents' consumption structure under the new normal economic situation,and puts forward the corresponding development countermeasures.