The Influence Factors Of International Crude Oil Future Price's Fluctuation

The influence factors of international crude oil price fluctuation have always been an important part of domestic and foreign scholars' research.Since 2000,the international crude oil price fluctuation presents the complicated and volatile characteristic,the oil price rise and fall has appeared in a short time.All kinds of factors that influence the oil futures price fluctuations,through summarizing the historical scholars research results,this paper from the three aspects of the fundamentals of supply and demand factors,financial factors,politics and emergencies induction main factors influence the fluctuation of the international oil prices,and action mechanism of these factors affecting the international oil prices of the detailed theoretical analysis,think the international crude oil supply,the dollar exchange rate and oil speculation leading trend of fluctuations in international oil prices,short-term international oil price shocks is mainly affected by the macro economy,the dollar exchange rate,oil speculation and emergency response.Based on this,this paper utilizes the wavelet regression analysis to model the effect of fluctuations in international crude oil futures prices(WTI)factors empirical research,first with the use of wavelet transform,the index time series is decomposed into represent the trend of the volatility of the approximate sequence and on behalf of the short-term shocks the detailed sequence,then using multiple linear regression model to approximate sequence and a detail sequence regression analysis,empirical research results show,a dominant factor for the seasonal fluctuation of international crude oil futures prices trend followed by oil speculation,the international crude oil supply and the dollar exchange rate,to short-term shocks influence the biggest factor followed by oil speculation,the dollar exchange rate and macroeconomic.Through theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,oil speculation is an important force for the international crude oil futures price volatility.