China's Eight Economic Regions And The Comparison Of Typical Administrative Regional Housing Price Changes, Analysis And Forecasting,

The residence price is critical to fostering the residence industry to be a new hot consumption point and economic growth point. Residence price is the core of the residence market, the pilot lamp of macroscopic supervision, readjustment and control of governments, the guarantee of enterprise profits as well as a problem concerned of investment decision makers. To the most important, it concerns the interests of ordinary people. Therefore, this essay, from the aspect of market, discusses the relations among the factors influencing the residence price, quantitatively analyzes the factors influencing the residence price and the time fluctuation tendency of the residence price and makes a forecast of it in future.This essay firstly fixes the research field. Residence price is a microscopic problem, but data concerning the microscopic field haven't been got due to the immature residence market. Consequently, this essay has to start from the macroscopic aspect. Based on relevant data, this essay divides our 31 provinces and cities (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan) to eight economic zones and collects their detailed and true economic data. Then this essay makes grey relational analysis to the date about the thirteen factors influencing the residence prices in the eight economic zones and defines the major influencing factors in the recent years. In addition, these factors are ordered according to the influencing degrees. Then, this essay makes a forecast to the residence prices in the eight economic zones. In the forecast, grey model, double exponential smoothing and auto-regressive moving average are applied. The forecast results of these three methods are compared and analyzed. Furthermore, the conclusion that auto regression moving average is more precise for the forecast of residence price.In view of the development imbalance among the eight economic zones, this essay selects three typical administrative zones, Beijing Liaoning and Gansu, to compare, analyze and forecast the residence price so that the status and cause of its fluctuation can be reflected better and the proposals can be brought forward. Finally,...