Research On The Interactive Relation Between Commercial Housing Price And GDP In Harbin

From the experience of many western developed countries,the rapid rise in housing prices in the short term is likely to produce a real estate bubble,weaken the financial system,and even lead to long-term economic recession.In 2008,the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States sounded the alarm to the high level of real estate economy in China,but also the real estate price will be pushed to the focus of attention of the community.The relevant departments began to frequent promulgation of the real estate policy,from "Eight Control Regulations on House Prices" in 2011 to the first suite's lending rate adjust regression benchmark interest rate in 2012,from the "Five Control Regulations on House Prices" in 2013 when the real estate market stepped into the adjustment period to in the beginning of 2015 a series of rescue policies,which reflected that the real estate price fluctuation was closely correlated to the stable development of the national economy to a certain extent.In order to better promote the healthy and orderly development of the real estate industry and maintain steady growth of the national economy,the paper selects the commercial housing price and GDP as the research objects,which are the typical representatives of the real estate price and the national economy,on the basis of mechanism theories about house prices and GDP,for making up for the deficiencies of existing research,using time series analysis method,combined model analysis method and VAR model analysis method,conducts in-depth dissection about the interaction mechanism between the two variables from perspectives of theoretical analysis and empirical examination respectively.In the process of theoretical analysis,the paper,according to Redman's enduring income hypothesis and the investment multiplier effect,will compare the relationship between them.In the process of empirical analysis,this article will take Harbin area as an example,will do detailed preprocessing work of the field investigation datas,in order to reduce the probability of error,at the same time,will introduce a bivariate linear regression model combined with an autoregressive moving average model and apply a vector autoregressive model to thoroughly analyze the nexus between commercial housing price and GDP.The study's result demonstrates that,in the long run,property price's impact on GDP is stronger than GDP having an influence upon residential price.Moreover,it also points out that one side changes remarkably facing the other's positive shock in the short term,but as time elapses,impulse responses will gradually vanish.