Research On The Five Star Room Demand Of Y Hotel

After cruel baptism of the market from 2012 to 2015,the domestic business Stars Hotel there only cold warming trend,about 1% guest room income and average price increase.The source structure of the domestic hotel market has changed obviously.Tourism investment enthusiasm rising,reaching the highest level of tourism consumption,tourism industry as a new engine of economic growth advantages more apparent.As with the aviation industry,the hotel industry has all the characteristics of the industry revenue management.Both the academic and industrial circles,revenue management theory and practice in the hotel industry have been fully developed,but there is little literature from the perspective of room sales channels of analysis and comparison of the forecasting method of the demand differences,focus on seasonal index reflects the general rules and to explore the special effects in the hotel revenue management influence.In revenue management,the forecast is the foundation and key to the successful implementation of dynamic pricing and stock allocation.Therefore,this paper mainly involves the basic five star Y Hotel room revenue management aspect--room demand forecast.Firstly,this paper systematically summarizes the theory and practice of revenue management in hotel industry,including revenue management,hotel revenue management and demand forecasting theory.Secondly,the demand forecast,based 2014 and 2015 Beijing state-owned hotel Y Hotel five-star rooms deluxe business room actual operation data,as the background proposed analysis framework of forecasting the demand for hotel rooms,and Y five-star hotel rooms revenue management selected "relatively high" prediction method.There are four kinds of prediction methods in this article: moving average method,exponential smoothing,linear regression and autoregressive moving average method.Through the empirical analysis shows that the moving average method and autoregressive moving average method is more accurate,the fitting effect of the linear regression method is not good,can hardly explain the data.Moreover,the seasonal index reflects the universal law of Y five-star hotel guest room management: the labor day and National Day festival as hotel y pale,flat,business season dividing line;hotel source localization and bring the negative effects to the holidays,and Y Hotel product features and highlights the spillovereffect.Finally,through the comparison of the data analysis,reflect the special effect of Y Hotel--College Independent Recruitment effect,exhibition economy effect,politics effect analysis.