A Study On The Evolution And Resolution Of Financial Risk In China From The Perspective Of Debt

Before the global financial crisis in 2008,the United States and other developed countries adopt leverage to promote the development of economic.With increasing of leverage,the economy has a certain development.As adding-leverage gradually decline,the power of the economy's development are facing high debt,low liquidity,high repayment pressure,low solvency problems that lead to a series of financial risks.This trigger the financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis which affect and damage economy greatly.After the outbreak of the financial crisis,countries are taking on measures,reducing the debt and resolving risks.To stimulate economic development and relieve the pressure of the economic downturn,China introduce a plan which opened by adding leverage to stimulate economic development pattern.Recent years,with the gradual increasing of the leverage ratio,China's debt scale has expanded rapidly.The financial risk which caused by the falling return on capital that pass on the financial system through financial institutions.It will cause financial risk and destroy the stability of financial system.Scholars who study the the cause of financial risk from the perspective of debt,the study of the relationship between debt and financial risk are mostly in the theoretical level.And most focusing on research in the theoretical analysis of the government department or business department,less focusing on overall comparison analysis in the macroscopic angle and the perspective of the empirical quantitative relationship between them.This article is based on the transverse comparison of debt scale between China and the United States which from one angle of the horizontal and vertical comparison that combine the analysis' theoretical with the present situation analysis as well as empirical analysis.At last,summarizing the evolution path of financial risk which caused by debt in our country,using the experience of the United States that deleverage measures after the financial crisis,summing up method that resolve the financial risk of China.This paper is mainly divided into six chapters:The First chapter is introduction,mainly introducing the research background and research significance of topic selection inthis paper.First,defining the definition of risk,debt risk and financial risk,and summarizing the definition of "financial risks under the perspective of debt".Then,elaborating the research train of thought and framework which combed the domestic and foreign research present situation that use the angle of the relationship between debt and financial risk that discussing the innovation points and deficiencies of this article.The Second chapter is the analysis theory of the relationship between debt and financial risk.This mainly introduces the theory and measure of leverage in the risk of debt,the theory and measure of financial risk,the relationship between debt and financial risk theory,etc..The economic subject in the research of this article is divided into government,residents,non-financial corporations and the financial sector,summing up the economic subject departments under the perspective of debt finance risk evolution path,then bedding theoretical basis for empirical analysis.The Third chapter is the comparative analysis of the debt scale and level of leverage by horizontal comparison between the two countries.Through the longitudinal comparison of four economic subject departments' level of debt and leverage,knowing the similarities and differences,finding the potential risks that in order to use leverage measures and put forward targeted policy recommendations,as well as for empirical analysis.The chapter Four is the empirical analysis of the relationship between debt and financial risk.Measuring financial risk degree between the two countries through the construction of China and the United States financial pressure index.Then discovering the influence degree of the financial risk through the leverage and pressure index of financial to VAR impulse response analysis of the different economic subject departments debt to the influence degree of the financial risk.The perspective of mathematical proof that increased risk of financial leverage increases under increase of debt and the influence of financial risk department,making policy recommendations.The chapter Five is the case analysis of debt perspective the defuse financial risks of the U.S.The financial crisis that after the economic subject deleverage process and measures,combining the current situation of the above analysis and the result of empirical analysis,summing up experience and lessons,and getting enlightenment.The chapter Six is the prevention countermeasures and suggestions of financial risk in our country.On the basis of the experience and lessonsthat our government,residents,non-financial corporations,and financial sector deleverage,reduce debt,dissolve the financial risk of countermeasures and suggestions.The perspective of real economy and the further optimize proposals are the angle of financial system that under the perspective of the real economy.The innovation of this article is using the debt perspective to definite the financial risk.Analyzing and summing up the causation of financial risk which the Chinese government,residents,non-financial enterprise financial risks and the financial sector cause.Through the theory analysis and empirical analysis of the current situation of bilateral and vertical debt that financial risk relationship between China and the United States,this paper makes a comparative analysis from the mathematical point of view which is more referential.The deficiency of this paper is selection of annual data which the data span time is small and the data loss when in the process of frequency conversion and the process of empirical analysis.At the same time,the bond industry and insurance industry are not included in this research.The construction of financial stress index needs further improvement.