Allocation,Transaction Pricing Of Carbon Emission Allowance In China

As global warming have become increasingly serious,emission reduction is paid attention by many countries in the world.As a big carbon emitter,China is speeding up the construction of a carbon emissions trading market(CETM),and has made certain development.However,China’s CETM,which is still in the early stage,is lack of marketing theory and practical experience.And the issues of initial carbon allocation,proper pricing of carbon trading and effective monitoring of market risk are essential to the construction of CETM.Therefore,carrying out theory and application studies about CETM issues are becoming more and more important.In this thesis,China’s carbon allocation under the total amount target is taken as the research object.And the major issues about China’s carbon allocation and market operation of carbon trading are analyzed by using different methods including Nash Equilibrium,Bilateral Auction,generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model(GARCH)and Neural Network.The issues are of internal logic: initial carbon allocation happens in the initial stage of CETM,then carbon tradings appear among enterprises,and then trading risk increases with the expansion of the volume of carbon tradings.Therefore,the issues of initial carbon allocation,carbon trading mechanism,the pricing of carbon trading and the monitoring of carbon price fluctuation risk are studied from the perspective of maximization of economic and environmental benefits and supply-demand equilibrium,which is meaningful to providing theoretical support and policy recommendations for the healthy development of China’s CETM.First,the initial allocation of carbon rights is studied under the total amount target.By using prisoners dilemma model and mathematical analysis,the necessary of emission reduction is proved.And a carbon allocation scheme based on joint developing is proposed as the best strategy.Then under the condition of total amount target,a Nash equilibrium model is built considering the economic development level,industrial structure and resource endowment of different areas in China.With the help of the Nash equilibrium model,the optimal carbon emission amount and economic growth considering the total utility maximization of economy and environment of different areas are obtained,which provides an initial carbon allocation scheme for China’s CETM.Second,the carbon trading and the pricing issue in carbon trading are studied.The carbon equilibrium price derived from the balance of supply and demand is obtained considering the influence factors of carbon price by using the Bayesian Nash equilibrium model.This work is conducive to understanding the carbon pricing mechanism deeply,exerting the discovery function of carbon price effectively and guiding enterprises to doing carbon emission reduction and carbon trading reasonably.At the same time,the auction process of carbon trading is simulated by making a bilateral auction mechanism based on the bilateral auction theory.And the equilibrium price of carbon trading and a secondary carbon allocation scheme is furtherly obtained.The auction mechanism is also proved to be of incentive compatibility.Third,the volatility risk and prediction of carbon price are studied.The carbon prices of different areas are proved to be of fluctuation agglomeration by using the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model(ARCH).Then the variance of price return in carbon trading of different areas is obtained by applying GARCH.And the risk and difference of carbon price changes are analyzed by studying the price fluctuation frequency,price wave peak and price relevance in various regions.Then the long-term and short-term predictions about carbon prices on exchanges are carried out by applying the neural network model and the least squares vector machine model.Based on the analysis of carbon price fluctuation and risk,a price prediction model is built considering the characteristics of the carbon price change in different regions which providing a technical support for monitoring carbon price changes.The proposed model is helpful to reducing the risk caused by price fluctuation,leading carbon price to real value and guiding enterprises to doing carbon emission reduction and carbon trading properly.