| The Central Economic Working Conference in 2017 has urged to put the prevention and control of financial risks in a more important position to ensure that systemic financial risk does not occur.As the second largest risk among eight main financial risks,liquidity risk is the most deadly and ultimate one for Commercial Bank.In 2013,the "money shortage" phenomenon appeared twice,which exposed the limitations in the management of fluidity on the part of Commercial Bank.Since 2014,bank run happened constantly in several rural credit cooperatives.With the interaction between economic downturn,the implementation of saving insurance policy,the rapid progressing of interest rate marketing,the booming of Internet Finance,the pressure of liquidity risk for small and medium-sized rural banking institutions will continue to increase.Compared with eastern developed regions,small and medium-sized rural banking institutions in Sichuan have indicated weakness in the level of economic development,capital strength,asset quality,risk management,senior executives competence,and have been faced with higher hidden liquidity risks.Studying its influencing factors in various forms and at varying degrees can provide clear guidance for regulators and banks to control liquidity risk prospectively and take effective measures.First,this paper summarizes and analyzes relative literature in the last few years about liquidity risk from three major areas: the causes,influencing factors and management.Descriptive analysis is used to explain the concept,special attributes and primary metrics of liquidity risk,according to the Basel Accord and relevant regulatory documents.Combined with the sample data,it is concluded that the small and medium-sized rural banking institutions in Sichuan have five essential features: seasonal,high-risk sexual,weak capacity of risk management,excessive emphasis on profit and defects of the system.In the part of empirical analysis,a total number of 28 rural credit cooperatives and community banks are chosen to be the research objects,adopting principalcomponent analysis(PCA)to calculate the liquidity risk level of the 28 model samples from 2014 to the end of June in 2016,using fixed effect variable intercept model to run regression analysis,evaluating how and the extent to which these eight factors affect liquidity risk and explaining one by one.Particularly,this paper selects liquidity ratio,the core debt dependency,liquidity gap rate and loan-to-deposit ratio as the representative indicators to calculate the liquidity risk index,on the basis of comparative analysis of comprehensiveness,advantages and disadvantages.The real estate market supply and marketing rate is set up to measure the impact that the supplies and deals in real estate impose on liquidity risk in the explanatory variables.The empirical results show that the regional GDP growth,rural residents income,real estate market supply and marketing rate of bank location are the main external factors,with the profitability and credit risk of banks being the important internal factors influencing the liquidity risk of the small and medium-sized rural banking institutions in Sichuan.No significant effect has been found on variables including consumption level,central bank monetary policy and capital adequacy of bank.Seeing from the data,the real estate market supply and marketing rate have the most significant impact,while the rural residents' income influences least in five significant influence factors.At last,according to the results of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,this paper provides policy advice on how to strengthen the management of liquidity risk on the part of regulators and banks. |
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