An Empirical Study On The Restricted Purchase Effect Of China's Real Estate Market

In the past ten years,the development of the real estate market in our country has become faster and faster.The real estate industry has grown into one of the pillar industries in China's economic growth.However,with the accelerating development of China's real estate industry,there have been phenomena of irrational over-investment or speculation in the real estate market in a number of cities.Real estate prices have risen rather quickly.This phenomenon not only poses a threat to the sustainable and healthy development of the real estate industry.It also has a significant impact on the lives of the people and the long-term development of the Chinese economy.In order to prevent real estate risks and maintain the sustainable development of the real estate industry,many local governments in China have successively implemented a series of purchase restriction policies.The purpose of these restriction policies is clear,but its policy effect is not clear.This paper selects 67 large and medium-sized cities real estate data to explore the effect of China's real estate market purchase limit policy.First of all,the comparative analysis of the development of the real estate market in 67 large and medium-sized cities was conducted using cluster analysis.It was found that there was no direct cause and effect in the comprehensive economic strength and high price of the region,and there may be high prices in the regions where the comprehensive economic strength is weak.The correlation of house prices is characterized by small concentration and large dispersion.Since house prices are different between different types of cities and different regions,the design and implementation of the restriction policies should also be differentiated.Through this comparative analysis,There is a preliminary understanding of the general situation of the real estate market in large and medium-sized cities.Afterwards,it compares the development of real estate in large and medium-sized cities with three different levels of purchase-capability combined with the six indicators of housing price index,per capita GDP,personal savings(investment),average annual population,real estate construction land and real estate investment.According to the analysis,assuming other external conditions are not changed,a random effect model is constructed on the panel data.It is found that the limited-purchase policy mainly affects the real estate price through per capita GDP and personal savings(investment).The two indicators of annual average population and real estate construction land are different.Changes in the type of cities with limited purchases indicate that the two indicators of per capita GDP and personal savings in our model are fundamental to house prices.The high house prices in different periods may be due to the increase in average annual population and real estate construction.The shortage of land caused by the restriction of purchase policy has a certain degree of restriction on high prices,but between the one-time purchase and the second-order purchase of cities,the index coefficients only undergo minor changes,which do not reflect the policy effect well.In order to better reflect the effect of the policy,this paper carries out marginal improvement in methods and uses the method of PSM-DID to explore the effect of China's real estate purchase restriction policy.Based on the analysis of the front panel,per capita GDP,personal savings(investment),average annual population and land for real estate construction as a covariate,and matching objects are 23 cities that have not issued a restriction on purchase policies,so that their policies are released beforehand(D=0),and 16 cities that issue a purchase restriction policy make their policies released.The processing effect(D=1),model estimation,and analysis of the matching results found that before the policy change,house prices showed a broad peak and a right-tailed state,that is to say,based on the housing price in 2010,there was a portion of the city's The housing prices are very high.The cities with medium and high housing prices are the majority;after the policy changes,they show peaks and right thick tails.This shows that the extremely high prices may not be there,but the high prices are even higher,and the prices of high-price cities are higher.More;the purchase restriction policy has played a significant role in the “higher prices,faster growth” of the city,but the effect of the purchase restriction on the overall price does not seem clear.Obviously,it needs deeper exploration.Finally,based on the above empirical analysis and combined with the current situation of the real estate market put forward corresponding policy recommendations,for this article specifically include: From the results of cluster analysis,to deal with different regions to take a different approach to control policies,it should be noted that the purchase limit There are differences in the implementation effects of policies,and in the case of meeting the rigid demand for housing,there are targeted introduction policies;from the fundamental point of view,we should mention the purchasing power of consumers.Local governments should use local advantageous resources to vigorously develop comparative advantage industries.Driving local residents to make a fortune;from the perspective of real estate construction land supply,the supply of real estate construction land is not a significant indicator,but it is the production factor of real estate development.When the government regulates real estate prices,it must consider these interferences.As far as comprehensive considerations are concerned,a rational and compliant real estate control policy is formulated;from the perspective of real estate investment,local authorities should use various methods to restrict non-rigid demand for profit-making purposes.