Probability Analysis Of Slope Failures Caused By Earthquake

China is an earthquake-prone country,earthquake-induced slope failure seriously endangers the lives and property of the people,the study of seismic stability of slope is significant.This paper will turn comparison between the critical earthquake intensity which causes slope failure and the regional seismic precautionary criterion of earthquake intensity is to be developed,it contacts up the risk of slope failing caused by earthquake and the possibilities of a regional earthquake occurrence in the future,not only gives the probability meaning to the stability of slope failure by earthquake actions,while also lay it bases that unifiedmonomeric slope earthquake stability analysis and evaluation of regional landslide disaster caused by earthquake actions,This will promote the analysis and evaluation of geological hazards.Slope earthquake instability is a complex process and its influencing factors from two main aspects:induced factors?earthquake actions?and predisposing conditions?slopecharacters?.Seismic factors included not only the"three elements of earthquake actions"?seismic intensity,frequency and duration of earthquake actions?,but also the direction of earthquake action,angle and phase;slope characters included slope shape,slope structure and slope media properties,and so on.Combining slope critical seismic acceleration a₀±?a₀ based on the analysis of induced factors and predisposing conditions with the probability of bedrock peak acceleration curve and venues a_p under the influence of potential seismic sources in different azimuthal domains,obtained slope failure probability P±?P in 50 years and stabilitycoefficientKof 50years exceeding probability 10%.This papertakesPanlongyuan slope in Baoji as the research object.On one hand,determine the radius of 150km for the research area,and divided into 8 azimuthal domains.Based onpotential seismic sources and site attenuation relationship of each azimuthal domain,calculate the potential seismic incident angle,the probability of bedrock peak acceleration curve and venues of each azimuthal domain.The other hand,establish numerical model bases on Panlongyuan slopes,and excited it with particular seismic actions,while also combined with Panlongyuan slope failure critical acceleration analyzedon orthogonal experiment aboutinduced factors and predisposing conditions.Getting Panlongyuan slope next 50 years failure probability P±?P andstabilitycoefficient Kof 50 years exceeding probability 10%.Main results of this paper are as follows:?1?Estimates considering potential seismic source azimuth of Panlongyuan slope seismic hazard,?2?Established the probability analysis model of slopestability?3?Getting failure probability ofPanlongyuan slope under different seismic ways.