Ceramic Art Pricing Model Analysis And Price Prediction

Art Ceramic,also famous for its Ornamental,artistic,cultural,collection,investmention.in recent years soaring ceramic art prices has become conditionality factors of art ceramics market development in our country,ceramic evaluation has not been conducted theoretical studies.In today's mathematical theory system,there exist a lot of forecast model has beenused on different kind of research object,however,currently,few scholars has done some quantitative forecast research on pricing problem of art ceramic.Thus,in this thesis,three different kind of forecast model has been used to help separately doing analysis on the problem.meanwhile,compared the forecast performance of the three different models.This paper analyses the five factors which influences the prices of ceramic art works,namely,era factor,modeling factor,decoration factor,size factor,pattern factor to art ceramic.The first part of this paper puts forward the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(AHP),sums up the several main indexes for evaluation of art ceramics,uses the three scale method,ensures the influence degree of each evaluation index for the evaluation target,introduces fuzzy consistent matrix to the analytic hierarchy process,and by predicting samples prove that this model can be validity and rationality applying in the ceramic art pricing.In the Proeess of time-series data mining,this paper transformed time-series to trend sequences combined with the data of four auction nearly 10 years of art ceramics amo.we focused on the segmentation of time-series based on the featured data point,linear approximation and trend abstraction.Trend sequence could display the trend information of the time-series.according to the characteristics of the ceramic art,the fuzzy logic reasoning technology combined with artificial neural network,building which has the function of fuzzy logic reasoning and learning system based on T-S fuzzy neural network.Through to the forecast data fitting and testing,the results show that the fuzzy neural network can accurately predict the price of ceramic art.We find out that the T-S fuzzy neural network model is the best one to get a good prediction effect for the data in this thesis,According to the conclusion of this thesis,we can use those model for long-term prediction of most ceramic art prices,and give advice to some long-term behavior and decision-making.And there also exist some inadequacies in this thesis,so some further research can be made to forecast the system of the ceramic art price more actually on the basis of this thesis,and provide some advice and guidance for the actual production and living,and promote the stable development of the The art market.