A Statistical Study On The Risk Of Agricultural Flood Disaster In Anhui Province

The characteristics of natural disasters are mainly extensive,frequent,serious,uncertainty.There is a disaster in any area around the world,and the time,place and degree of disaster are different.Using historical data modeling to carry out disaster early warning is less effective,it is difficult to accurately predict,due to the disaster Uncertainty,people can not timely transfer of property before the disaster,resulting in the loss is very serious,and the loss is not limited to the economic side,the more serious is the deprivation of the lives of residents of the disaster area,and after a period of time,The local can not carry out the production and life caused by the indirect economic losses are quite serious.Flood disaster is a sudden,high frequency,wide distribution area of serious natural disasters,is caused by the loss of agricultural development in Anhui Province,the main natural disasters,the impact of agricultural economy in Anhui Province than other natural disasters caused by the impact of the sum,The risk assessment work for this disaster is slow and can not judge the frequency and loss distribution of major flood disasters,and it has caused some problems in agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation.Therefore,this paper studies the risk assessment of agricultural flood disaster in Anhui Province,emphasizes the construction of agricultural flood catastrophe loss distribution model,and uses this model to guide the practice.The results show that the average flood disaster of agricultural floods in Anhui Province is less affected,and the disaster situation is serious in individual years.The distribution of floods in agriculture is consistent with the generalized Pareto distribution model.Under the 95% confidence level,Anhui Province,the impact of a decade of crop damage does not exceed 13%,the loss rate of a disaster in two decades will not exceed 25%.At the same time,the one-year zero-interest bonds of floods were designed by using the distribution of agricultural floods and wastes in Anhui Province,which helped the insurance companies to disperse the risks when the floods occurred,The feasibility of securitization was proved.Designed an innovative policy-the flood of catastrophe insurance as a policy of agricultural insurance additional risk,identify new trigger points and claim limits to activate the agricultural insurance market,to stimulate premium growth.Finally,it puts forward some relevant policy suggestions on the risk assessment of agricultural flood disaster,the establishment of sound flood disaster prevention and mitigation mechanism,the encouragement of financial instruments to join disaster risk management.