Research On The Application Of Value Evaluation Of Long-term Rental Apartment REITs Based On Monte Carlo Model

At present,my country continues to strengthen the regulation of real estate,and the National Development and Reform Commission and the Central Political and Economic Conference have also issued a number of policies to vigorously support the development of long-term rental apartments.In this context,various real estate companies have gradually launched long-term rental apartment businesses,and with the continuous expansion of the long-term rental apartment market,their capital needs have also continued to expand.Compared with traditional financing models,REITs have unique advantages and are also the best way to achieve smooth financing of long-term rental apartments.However,there are still many problems in the current development of long-term rental apartments,such as financing difficulties and long investment payback periods.Therefore,the valuation of longterm rental apartment REITs has become an important link in the issuance of longterm rental apartment REITs,and it is also a key step.Therefore,this paper uses Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the value of long-term rental apartment REITs,based on the property value of long-term rental apartment REITs,hoping to provide a new idea for the financing of long-term rental apartments in my country.First,this article analyzes the literature related to long-term rental apartments,specifically including long-term rental apartments,REITs development,long-term rental apartment REITs value evaluation,and case studies.Based on asset securitization value evaluation,it studies the current situation and problems of the long-term rental apartment industry.,And explore its shortcomings.Secondly,through the comprehensive comparison of the three methods of asset evaluation,the income method is selected as the basic model of this research,and the income method is improved in a targeted manner.The Monte Carlo simulation method is introduced into the net cash flow forecasting model,and then the data is collected.Make assumptions on the uncertain factors affecting cash flow,determine the probability distribution,randomly sample to determine the confidence interval and the number of simulations,and then calculate the return on the underlying assets of long-term rental apartment REITs based on the property value perspective.Finally,the new long-term rental apartment REITs value calculation method is determined by combining the discount rate and the capitalization rate.Through the case study of CIFI Residences,it is found that both the traditional income method and the improved income method based on the Monte Carlo model can estimate the value of CIFI Residences REITs,but the traditional income method is only a single Based on the Monte Carlo model,the improved income method can obtain a value interval,which can analyze the investment value of CIFI Residences from factors such as confidence interval,confidence,maximum and minimum,for the use of evaluation reports The person brings some help.At the same time,through the value evaluation of REITs,it can also provide value reference for investment decision makers and operators to help make better decisions.