| Aviation induced cloud termed contrail plays a more and more important role in the climate change,which makes a significant contribution to anthropogenic climate forcing through impacting the coverage of cirrus in the intersection of troposphere and stratosphere.In the first half of this paper,we propose one novel automatic contrail detecting method based on Himawari-8 stationary satellite imagery and two kinds of potential contrail coverage(PCC1 and PCC2)from contrail parameterization in ECHAM4 and HadGEM2.In addition,we propose one new climatological index called contrail occurrence and persistence(COP).According to the algorithm identification(AI)and artificial visual inspection(AVI),COP measured from Himawari-8 stationary satellite imagery is related to PCC1 and PCC2 computed with the ECMWF reanalysis data by simple linear regression.Similarly,we compared the linear correlation between COP and PCCs fractions and found that PCC1 has better correspondence with COP than PCC2.In the latter part of the paper,we simulated the coverage of real contrail and simulated the radiation forcing distribution of contrail through the QUANTIFY data,CCSM4 mode data and the contrail parameterization scheme of HadGEM2.Due to the time limitation of aviation data,we simulated the year 2000 in history and the year 2025,2050,2100's contrails coverage and radiative forcing distribution based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future scenarios.The results show that the simulated results of 2000 year with the results of previous studies comparing differences in the acceptable range;further,in East Asia,with the increase of time,contrail coverage and radiative forcing have increased based on two scenarios,under the RCP8.5 scenario the contrail coverage and radiative forcing present progressive growth and moderate growth under RCP4.5 scenario.In addition,the average coverage and net radiation forcing of the contrail of the East Asian region in summer are obviously greater than that in winter. |
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