Evaluation Of Ocean Forecasting Fields On Temperature,Salinity And Chlorophyll In The East China Sea

Marine forecast is the foundation of all marine activities,such as:aquaculture,marine fishing,shipping.So,the study of marine forecasting accuracy is of great importance.However,the accuracy of forecasting system in the East China Sea has not been systematically evaluated,and the accuracy and forecasting skill are often based on some certain examples.This study will use the prediction results of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model(HYCOM)and Copernices Marine Enviromment Monitoring Service(CMEMS)Ocean forecast system and the corresponding satellite and field observations to evaluate the accuracy of the Marine forecasting system,especially,in the East China Sea.The results are helpful for people to better use the Marine forecast system,and providing assist for the development of the next generation of China's offshore Marine forecasting system.Some significant results are revealed as follows:The field temperature,salinity and satellite observation data sets of the East China Sea in the winter of 2015 and 2016 were compared with the initial field and forecast field of HYCOM.The results showed the forecast precision of system initial field and forecast techniques have obvious differences in winter and summer.The accuracy of HYCOM temperature the initial field in winter better than summer,the temperature showed no significant deviation between them in winter,and the temperatures showed significant difference in summer.The precision of the initial field of salinity is slightly better than that in summer.The distribution is characterized by "high near shore and low bank",and the summer also showed a large error in the water path of the Yangtze River.In terms of forecasting techniques,the forecast system of temperature in winter has certain prediction techniques.During the 1st day to 7th day,RMSE increased from 0.7 ? to 1.3 ? with the forecast limitation.The mean square error of salinity was maintained at 1.9psu,with no significant change in the predicted aging.Compared with winter,the forecasting technique for temperature and salinity decreased significantly in summer.GOCI and CMEMS chlorophyll concentration data from September 2016 to August 2017 were used to compare and analyses.The results found the CMEMS forecasting system was accurate,except the area near the Yangtze River estuary,and the system would change during different seasons.The prediction results are better in autumn and winter,while the results in spring and summer were not accurate.CMEMS can reproduce the seasonal change characteristics of chlorophyll concentration in the Yangtze River estuary and adjacent sea area and the Bohai Sea of,but exists a certain error,the reappearance ability of seasonal variation characteristics in the Yellow Sea is relatively poor.The ecological forecasting system is greatly influenced by the runoff of the Yangtze River.The chlorophyll concentration in the area near the changjiang estuary is often large.