Research On The Prediction Method Of The Development Capability Of A Design Company Based On Random Process

With the rapid development of economic globalization,how to take the lead in the fierce international competition,transform the way of economic development and improve the core competitiveness,is particularly important for innovation;Therefore,how to effectively understand the level of innovation and development of enterprises has become a problem that people pay more and more attention to it.Reliability level is one of the most important contents to study the development capacity of a unit system.It quantitatively describes the failure extent of the unit during its development.Accurately evaluating the reliability of the system development capability and predicting the change of the unit defect reliability with the test process can provide a basis for the allocation of test resources,which can meet the user's reliability needs and reduce the total cost of the production unit.This paper forecasts the reliability state of the system based on the current situation of the system development capability.First of all,a practical reliability analysis method is put forward to mark it.After considering the multiple indicators of the evaluation object,the expert prediction method and the Analytic hierarchy process are combined to quantify the defect influencing factors of the evaluation objects.Finally,the scoring standard of the design unit's system development capability is obtained.On the basis of this,the probability matrix and Markov chain are used to model the system,and the future years and the final reliability state of the unit are predicted.The results of the score and the results of the reliability prediction can help us to have a clear understanding of theworking capacity of the unit,thus avoiding the irreversible loss caused by the choice of errors.