Evaluation Methods Of Marine Resource And Environmental Carrying Capacity In Meso-and Micro-scale Sea Areas

The carrying capacity of marine resources and environment is the carrying ability of marine resources and environmental system of all kinds of social and economic activities of human beings in a certain period and in a certain sea area,under the conditions of maintaining the marine resources structure in accordance with the needs of sustainable development and maintaining the stable effect of the marine ecological environment.The evaluation of the marine resources and environmental carrying capacity can reflect whether human economic activities meet the requirements of sustainable development.In order to meet the requirements of the construction of marine ecological civilization,the importance of the monitoring and evaluation of the carrying capacity of marine resources and environment is becoming more and more important.In 2015,the National Oceanic Administration issued the guidelines for the monitoring and early warning index system of marine resources and environmental carrying capacity and technical methods,and carried out the pilot work of the marine resources and environment.However,the current research on the theory and method of marine resources and environmental carrying capacity needs to be strengthened.It is very necessary to carry out the evaluation of marine resources and environment carrying capacity.The concept of carrying capacity mainly includes five types:ecological capacity,resource carrying capacity,environmental carrying capacity,ecological carrying capacity and regional comprehensive carrying capacity.The index system method,resource supply and demand balance method and system model method are the commonly used quantitative evaluation methods.The main problems existing in the evaluation of marine resources and environmental carrying capacity are:(1)the cognition of the basic theory,internal structure and operating mechanism of the bearing capacity needs to be improved;(2)the evaluation of the comprehensive carrying capacity of the land region is not enough for the marine resources and environmental carrying capacity considering its special features;(3)The evaluation of meso-and micro scale marine resources and environmental carrying capacity is rather ignored,leading to the difficulties to integrate and contrast the evaluation contents and results of different sea areas.Based on the connotation and elements of the concept of carrying capacity,this paper analyzes the mechanism of marine carrying capacity,and constructs a method system for evaluating the carrying rate of meso-and micro scale marine resources and environment,which is determined by the leading function,including the design of the index system and the construction of a two-dimensional state-space model.The evaluation index system includes three factors:resource support,environmental support and environmental constraints.It identifies the secondary level evaluation variables under the leading function of port shipping,agricultural fisheries and tourism leisure and entertainment,and the two-dimensional state-space model includes the construction of conceptual model,the calculation method of carrying rate and the standard of judgment.The evaluation method system of meso-and micro scale marine resources and environmental carrying capacity is applied to the Jiu Longjiang estuary area of Xiamen sea area.After identifying its leading function,the carrying capacity of marine resources and environment in 2011?2016 years is evaluated,and the result of the change of carrying rate is obtained.From 2011 to 2013,the bearing rate of the research area was full loaded.2014?2016 was overloaded,with the year 2015 reaching a maximum of 1.40,and a downward trend in 2016.The target values of different scenarios are set up in the study area,and the quantitative targets and policy suggestions under different scenarios are put forward by the discretization analysis and sensitive analysis of the indicators.At the same time,the State Oceanic Administration guide method in 2015 was applied to the Jiu Longjiang estuary area of Xiamen sea area.It was evaluated that the damage index of Marine resources and environment was level-off.Besides the green pre-alarming area(no alarm),the other areas in the area of the study area were the orange pre-alarming area(heavy alarm).The evaluation method of the study and the application results of the State Oceanic Administration guidance method in 2015 were analyzed and compared.In this study,a system for evaluating the carrying capacity of marine resources and environment for meso-and micro scale sea areas is constructed.The system reflects the interaction between resources,environment and marine industry in the index design and the state-space model,which forms a comprehensive quantitative system.The system has been compared with the State Oceanographic Bureau guide method in 2015.This study expands the theory and metod of evaluating the carrying capacity of marine resources and environment,and enriches the results of the evaluation of marine resources and environmental carrying capacity in China.Meanwhile,it provided a reference for the evaluation of marine resources and environment carrying capacity.